PETALING JAYA: Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) is targeting several parliamentary seats held by its rivals in the next general election, but analysts says its ambitions may hinge on electoral pacts and its ability to retain its existing seats.
GRS secretary-general Armizan Mohd Ali said last Tuesday that a simulation based on the results of the 2025 Sabah state election suggested the coalition could win more than 15 parliamentary seats.
GRS won six out of Sabah’s 25 parliamentary seats in the 15th general election (GE15): Papar, Sipitang, Ranau, Keningau, Batu Sapi and Tawau.
Universiti Malaya’s political analyst Awang Azman Pawi said GRS had reason to be optimistic following a strong showing in the state polls, which demonstrated broad support across rural, interior and west coast areas.
“Upko’s entry into GRS has also further expanded the coalition’s support base, especially among Kadazandusun-Murut voters and in mixed constituencies,” he told FMT.
Key battlegrounds
Awang Azman identified Kudat, Kota Belud, Beaufort, Kimanis, Beluran and Kota Marudu — constituencies not currently held by the coalition — as key battlegrounds in GRS’s push for expansion.
Kudat appears promising, he said, noting that GRS won in Banggi, Pitas and Tanjong Kapor, three of the four state seats within the parliamentary constituency at the recent state polls.
The parliamentary seat is currently held by independent assemblyman Verdon Bahanda, who, two months ago indicated he was “seriously considering” an offer to join Barisan Nasional.
Kota Belud, a Warisan seat, could also become more interesting following Upko’s entry into GRS. The coalition could potentially combine its strength in Tempasuk with Upko’s influence in Kadamaian. Warisan holds the third state seat, Usukan, while Pintasan is represented by an independent assemblyman.
Beaufort, currently held by BN, is another potential target with GRS having won both state seats within the constituency — Klias and Kuala Penyu — in the 2025 state election.
GRS also holds all three state seats within Beluran — Telupid, Sugut and Labuk — giving it a potential advantage in its bid to wrest the parliamentary seat from Perikatan Nasional.
In Kota Marudu — presently held by Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) — GRS holds Matunggong and Tandek, while Bandau is represented by an independent assemblyman.
In Kimanis, presently held by BN, GRS controls the state seat of Membakut, while Warisan holds Bongawan.
Tougher challenge elsewhere
Kinabatangan and Libaran — both BN strongholds — could be considered second-tier targets, Awang Azman said, but GRS would need strong candidates and a favourable landscape to wrest them away.
Within Kinabatangan, GRS holds the Kuamut state seat, while BN controls the Lamag and Sukau seats.
In Libaran, GRS holds Sungai Manila, while Warisan holds Gum Gum and Sungai Sibuga.
Awang Azman cautioned, however, that GRS’s immediate priority should be defending its existing parliamentary seats — especially Ranau, Sipitang, Batu Sapi and Tawau — which may not be safe in a general election given the differences between state and parliamentary voting patterns.
Strategic cooperation
Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Bilcher Bala said the seven parliamentary seats held by BN and the five held by Pakatan Harapan, both partners in the GRS-led state government, posed a strategic dilemma for GRS.
He said electoral cooperation with both coalitions could increase the number of parliamentary seats won by the state government bloc, but warned it could also limit the number of seats GRS itself could contest and win.
Bilcher said a target of 10 to 12 seats under its own banner would be more attainable if GRS agrees to seat-sharing arrangements with BN and PH.
“To reach 15 seats, however, GRS would need either to contest and win several BN and PH seats or secure an agreement for its allies to contest under a common political umbrella, allowing their victories to be counted as GRS-led bloc victories,” he said.
According to Bilcher, the first option risks splitting votes and benefiting Warisan, STAR, KDM or independent candidates, while the second would require extensive negotiations over leadership and seat allocation.
Bilcher said GRS’s target should therefore be assessed not only by the number of seats it wins directly, but also by the strength of the broader state government bloc.
He also identified Tenom and Putatan as potential battlegrounds.
GRS won Kemabong, one of the two state seats under Tenom, while in Putatan it won Tanjung Keramat, with Warisan holding Tanjung Aru, and Petagas represented by an independent assemblyman.