BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 1:50 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, O Liberal, SBT News
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened At a campaign event in São Luís on Tuesday 20 October, Lula said he plans to send Congress a free weekend public transport amendment and sign a debt-relief bill into law on Wednesday 21 October.
- The pledges The debt bill covers about 4 million micro-entrepreneurs, and the transport amendment would make public transport free on Saturdays and Sundays.
- The records Lula repeated his demand that Flávio Bolsonaro open his bank and phone records, and said his lawyers will ask the electoral court to open his own.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 1:46 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 23% and 21%), as of 20 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The cost of the transport plan and Flávio Bolsonaro’s reply on the records were not in the reports reviewed.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in São Luís on Tuesday 20 October that he plans to send Congress a free weekend transport amendment on Wednesday. He also plans to sign into law a bill wiping out the federal tax debts of about 4 million micro-entrepreneurs the same day.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
26 national polls from 14 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The promises came five days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. Lula also repeated that this is his last presidential campaign, according to Folha de S.Paulo.
What Lula Promised in São Luís
At a campaign event in São Luís, the capital of Maranhão state, Lula said: “It is my last campaign for president now, and I want this term to be historic” (translated from Portuguese). Folha de S.Paulo described the measures as an election-eve package of benefits.
The amendment would make public transport free on Saturdays and Sundays, and Lula said it goes to the Senate on Wednesday 21 October. He first announced the plan on 15 October, and SBT News reported that it would be paid for with parliamentary amendments, the budget funds that lawmakers direct to local projects.
How the Debt Relief Would Work
The bill covers micro-entrepreneurs, people who register as one-person businesses, whose debts sit on the federal government’s list of unpaid tax debts. Lula said the measure lets them clear their names and restart their activities, and that he will sign it on Wednesday, according to Folha de S.Paulo and O Liberal.
A constitutional amendment needs three-fifths of both houses in two rounds of voting each, which means 308 of 513 deputies and 49 of 81 senators. Sending the text on Wednesday starts that process rather than finishing it.
Lula Presses Flávio Bolsonaro on Bank Records
Lula again challenged Flávio Bolsonaro to release his bank and phone records. “I want to see if he has the courage to open his bank secrecy, his phone secrecy,” Lula said, in a translation of his Portuguese words.
He said his lawyers would ask the electoral court (TSE) to open his own records and those of his family, including the first lady and his children. It repeats the offer Lula’s campaign announced on 19 October, according to CNN Brasil, which was tied to a matching step by his rival.
What It Means for US Readers
Free transport and wider debt relief carry fiscal costs, and investors in Brazilian bonds, the real and US-listed Brazilian shares weigh such promises before a vote. No cost estimate for the transport plan appeared in the reports we reviewed.
Polls remain close, so any reaction from voters would show up in the surveys listed in our Brazil election polls tracker, not in the announcements themselves. The next surveys are due before the vote on 25 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 1:46 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$189.0 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 22.5% (US$189 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 20 October, 1:40 pm ET (18:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The cost of the free weekend transport plan has not been published in the reports we reviewed. It is also unknown whether Congress will take up the amendment before the runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s reply to Lula’s demand on bank records was not in those reports. No ruling on the request from Lula’s lawyers has been reported.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula promise in São Luís on 20 October?
He said he plans to send Congress an amendment for free public transport on Saturdays and Sundays and sign into law a bill forgiving federal debts of about 4 million micro-entrepreneurs, both on Wednesday 21 October. He spoke at a campaign event five days before the runoff.
Who is covered by the micro-entrepreneur debt bill?
It covers about 4 million micro-entrepreneurs with debts on the federal list of unpaid tax debts, according to Folha de S.Paulo and O Liberal. They are people who register as one-person businesses.
What did Lula say about Flávio Bolsonaro’s bank records?
He challenged Flávio Bolsonaro to open his bank and phone records. He said his lawyers would ask the electoral court to open his own records and his family’s.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The two candidates are Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 20 October 2026; O Liberal, 20 October 2026; SBT News, 20 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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