Hormuz attacks overwhelm UKMTO

The sheer volume of attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz has left Britain’s maritime security reporting centre struggling to keep track, with most vessels targeted in the increasingly dangerous waterway no longer reporting incidents directly.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) admitted in its latest weekly assessment that it is “struggling to accurately report true number of attacks”, warning that the majority of vessels attacked are refusing to report incidents. The organisation said it was aware of further attacks through other sources but could not include them in its figures without verification

UKMTO has recorded 135 incidents related to the Iran-US conflict since hostilities began on February 28, including 114 reports of vessel damage and 76 people killed or injured. Twelve attacks were recorded in its latest weekly assessment, ten in Hormuz itself, one in the Arabian Gulf and another in the Gulf of Oman. Of the vessels involved, one was lost, two were disabled and three had unconfirmed outcomes.

The violence has continued through the weekend, with attacks spreading well beyond the narrow confines of Hormuz.

On Friday, the 302,977 dwt VLCC ST3 was struck by an unidentified projectile approximately 68 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia. The Marshall Islands-flagged tanker suffered an engine room fire and lost power, according to maritime security firm Vanguard. All 15 Indian seafarers aboard were safely evacuated to a nearby UAE-flagged containership.

Later on Friday, another tanker was attacked approximately 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, this time by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat. The projectile damaged the vessel’s aft port quarter. All crewmembers were reported safe, although the full extent of the damage remains unclear.

Saturday brought further alarming claims from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which said two fully laden supertankers, each carrying more than 2m barrels of crude, had struck naval mines while attempting to transit Hormuz without Iranian authorisation. The IRGC claimed both vessels caught fire, with one suffering a major engine room explosion that left it immobilised. Neither ship has been identified and no independent confirmation has emerged. In its latest assessment, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) explicitly stated that there was no substantiation for the Iranian claims.

On Sunday, a tug travelling south approximately 20 nautical miles northeast of Khorfakkan was struck by two unidentified projectiles. One crewmember sustained minor injuries and the tug suffered damage, although it was able to continue its voyage.

A further security incident was reported on Saturday in the Gulf of Aden, where an LNG carrier was approached by a skiff carrying seven people. Two shots were fired at the gas carrier before its armed security team returned warning shots, forcing the attackers to withdraw. Maritime authorities are treating that incident as suspected piracy rather than a confirmed Iranian attack.

Despite the extraordinary violence, oil continues to move. Signal Ocean data shows approximately 13.9m barrels per day of crude and another 2.3m barrels per day of oil products still passing through Hormuz.

Scandinavian bank SEB argued in a new report today that the disruption is “more a risk-premium story than a volume blockage”, with oil continuing to move through the shuttle system established to maintain exports.

The distinction between cargo volumes and vessel movements is significant. UKMTO’s latest figures show 254 vessel transits in a week, approximately 70% below pre-war levels. JMIC reported around 217 vessels waiting at anchor near Fujairah and Khorfakkan on Sunday, with congestion continuing to build outside the strait.

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