Shas, United Torah Judaism may refuse to endorse Netanyahu or Eisenkot after elections, sources say

Shas and United Torah Judaism may refrain from recommending either Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot to President Isaac Herzog to form the next government after the elections, according to assessments by haredi sources familiar with developments in the parties.

The sources believe neither party is inclined to recommend a candidate to the president after the elections. At the same time, they do not expect either party to actively seek Netanyahu's replacement or help the anti-Netanyahu bloc oust Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana.

According to the sources, Shas and United Torah Judaism would prefer to remain in the opposition, at least initially, until a solution is found to the dispute over the haredi conscription law. Even if the legislation passes the Knesset, concerns that the High Court of Justice could strike it down may continue to delay their entry into a coalition and government, should one be formed.

At this stage, these are assessments from sources familiar with the haredi political establishment, not decisions by the parties' rabbinical leadership. 

The assessments come as parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc prepare for the possibility that the elections will produce no clear winner. Parties in the bloc are considering replacing Ohana after the new Knesset is sworn in.

The proposed move is intended to give the bloc greater influence over the parliamentary agenda and allow it to advance legislation, including the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks and a two-term limit for prime ministers, among other initiatives.

Under the plan being considered, the parties would seek to establish the Knesset House Committee and the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee after electing a new Knesset speaker. They would then try to secure majorities on those committees that would let legislation advance even before a government is sworn in.

In such a scenario, the anti-Netanyahu bloc could pursue certain parliamentary initiatives while Netanyahu continues to serve as caretaker prime minister. However, electing a new Knesset speaker would not guarantee a majority to pass legislation, nor would it end the outgoing government's term.

The haredi sources, for their part, believe that if the anti-Netanyahu bloc secures a majority to replace the Knesset speaker, it may also gather the support needed to form a government.

Such an arrangement could include a minority government relying on external support from Ra'am, or potentially even a government in which Ra'am participates as a coalition partner.

According to the sources, party leaders' current objections could change after the elections if they are presented with a realistic opportunity to replace Netanyahu.

Although MKs may agree to replace the Knesset speaker while refusing to support the swearing-in of a particular government, the haredi sources believe that agreements on forming a government could also emerge after the elections.

The sources nevertheless assess that Shas and United Torah Judaism are unlikely to actively support the anti-Netanyahu bloc's effort to replace Ohana.

It remains unclear whether the two parties would vote against such a move, abstain, or absent themselves from the vote.

The sources believe both parties would prefer to await the election results and a clearer picture of the possibilities for forming a government without committing themselves to either side in advance.

Their assessment that the haredi parties may refrain from recommending Netanyahu should not be interpreted as a willingness to help the anti-Netanyahu bloc replace him.

One of the main considerations is the ongoing crisis over the conscription law.

One possibility under consideration is for the anti-Netanyahu bloc to advance conscription legislation before a government is formed, in an attempt to remove an obstacle to the haredi parties joining a coalition at a later stage.

However, haredi sources doubt that passing the legislation would be sufficient as long as concerns remain that the High Court of Justice could strike it down.

According to the sources, even a commitment by a future government to advance a conscription arrangement would not guarantee that the haredi parties would agree to join it.

They believe that even if the Knesset approves a conscription law, the haredi parties will want to know whether the arrangement can withstand judicial review and remain in force over time.

Another possibility raised in closed discussions is to initially establish a government without the haredi parties and then attempt to bring them into the coalition after the conscription law passes the Knesset.

Haredi sources do not rule out a change in the parties' positions if they receive a concrete proposal.

However, they currently believe that neither Shas nor United Torah Judaism is likely to commit to joining a government headed by Netanyahu or Eisenkot.

In either case, the sources expect the conscription issue to continue complicating negotiations.

Haredi parties may decline to recommend any candidate to president
Another question raised during discussions concerns which candidate the haredi parties would recommend to the president.

A haredi source familiar with developments within the parties assessed that Shas and United Torah Judaism may refrain from recommending any candidate.

If the haredi parties ultimately decline to make a recommendation, their decision could affect the distribution of endorsements and the president's considerations when assigning the mandate to form a government.

The haredi sources' assessment that the anti-Netanyahu bloc could establish a minority government does not reflect the positions currently expressed by all the bloc's party leaders.

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman has repeatedly stated his opposition to forming a minority government dependent on Arab parties, while other figures in the bloc have not ruled out relying on Ra'am's support.

The dispute over Arab parties supporting an alternative government has also spilled onto social media.

Netanyahu responded on Sunday to a statement by Joint List chairman Prof. Yousef Jabareen, writing on his X account: "There is no alternative government without the Arab parties."

Jabareen replied: "Start packing. We will do everything possible to send you and all the damned Kahanists around you to the dustbin of history."