The Federal Government on Thursday, October 15, 2026, came close to declaring a state of emergency. The full War Council of the country, chaired by the Commander-in-Chief, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, gave clear directives to the security agencies that war should be carried to the criminals, the captives in the country should be rescued and the camps of bandits, which dot many parts of the country, be cleared.
Defence Minister General Christopher Musa (retired), who briefed the country, said: “The directive from the President is that all of us must go all out to fish out and rescue all those who have been abducted or kidnapped, wherever they are. There should not be any camp of terrorists or bandits anywhere in Nigeria.” Two days later, the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General WaidiShuaibu, flew into Maiduguri, Borno State, as a major step in carrying out the directives of President
I am not sure if the generals need to wait for the President to give them directives when, in the first place, that is their primary duty and the reason they receive monthly salaries and enjoy the perks of office.
However, the directives are significant because although the country is at war, the government does not know it. Or pretends not to know. This is even as many vandalised towns and villages bear undeniable testimony to the war.
The reason the government is playing the ostrich is basically political. When war criminals strike in the North East, they are designated terrorists and told to lay down their arms. When they strike in the North West, they are acknowledged as bandits who need to mend their ways. But when the terrorists and bandits strike in the Middle Belt, the Government designates them “herders”. It explains away the genocide being perpetrated in the region as “Herders-Farmers” clashes and lectures the people on the need for “peaceful co-existence”.
Nigeria is the only country I know where “herders” employ RPGs to shepherd cows and “farmers” are required to employ Kalashnikovs, especially the 1947 model, to till the land.
When the War Council declared war on insecurity, it ordered the security services to rescue victims from the hands of their abductors. But rather than start with the low-hanging fruit, it is talking tough. For instance, retaking the scores of territories, especially in Benue and Plateau States, seized, renamed and resettled by the terrorists is a more direct task. First, this will send a strong signal to the bandits that their years of terrorism are coming to an end. Secondly, it will enable the internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return home. Also, children who have known only the IDP camps would be assisted to grow up in a normal home environment. This would save the country the nightmare of having children grow up like Palestinians with a life ambition of returning to their ancestral homes.
Also, the government needs to send a clear message that criminality is criminality, no matter the ethno-religious orientation of the perpetrator, and that justice will be served, irrespective of the beneficiary.
Although the government is recruiting more personnel into the security services, this will not solve the insecurity in the country. What will, is to train and encourage the mass of the people in self-defence. Terrorists and bandits will bypass or overlook communities that are armed. Already, we have a model, the Civilian JTF example, in which people from communities impacted by terrorism are recruited into self-defence vigilante groups that are trained by the armed forces.
However, some have argued that, like the state police option, this can be abused. I agree, but what cannot be abused? Even drinking water can be abused, but that does not mean we should stop drinking it.
In my view, the reason the government is reluctant, or might never encourage self-defence, is that Nigerians would no longer be led like sheep. Nigerians have not been particularly well led. So an armed citizenry may want to put an end to their misery. But on the other hand, the undemocratic seizure of power would be much more difficult. One of the reasons the country was misruled for a cumulative 29 years of military rule is mainly that the latter had the monopoly of violence, at least until the terrorists and bandits came along to share that monopoly. So, the government should trust the citizenry that if they are empowered to defend themselves, they will not misuse such power.
A second directive by President Tinubu is that security agencies must provide a safe environment for the 2027 elections and ensure that the populace exercises its franchise without intimidation or violence. The President’s words, as conveyed by Musa, are: “For all other political parties, they should understand that the security forces are going to be neutral. We are going to ensure that everybody has the opportunity to participate, so they have nothing to worry about and nothing to be afraid of. Nobody is going to intimidate them for whatever reasons. We are all professionals, and we are fully committed.”
This is good to hear and is certainly welcome, except that, given our experience with the Osun State August 15, 2026 elections, this is illusory. The security services are part of the electoral problems in the country. Under what law or constitution does the army play a lead role in elections?
Seriously, the three most lucrative industries in the country, rated by profit margins, are political office, banditry and fuel speculation.
It is not for nothing that almost all governors in the country, including some of those in the opposition, support President Tinubu. Surely, not for good governance and the interest of the people. It is primarily self-interest, especially to retain power in various forms or be free from probe so they can retain unexplained wealth. It is not for nothing that people are murdered over elections, including the recent ones in Osun State, without any of the killers being brought to book. Even if the government claims not to know the actual killers, we all know those who publicly gave the orders. So, the only force that can check electoral violence is the mass of the people on whom it is visited.
The investment in banditry is so minimal, the risk so negligible and the profit so huge that parents in some parts of the country send their children as apprentices to learn the trade.
In the case of petroleum products, fuel importers, local refiners and their allies form a cartel to impose criminal prices for petroleum products. Nigerians cannot walk long distances, have no mass transit options like trains and the Underground.
So, no matter how much the cartels charge for fuel, there will always be a market. Certainly, this is no democracy.