Kazakhstan well positioned to become regional data center hub, says expert
Kazakhstan should welcome large data center investment while ensuring operators cover the additional electricity infrastructure costs their projects create, Dinara Berdigulova, a Doctor of International Affairs candidate at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said in an exclusive interview with a Qazinform News Agency correspondent.
Berdigulova said projects such as the proposed Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz could strengthen Kazakhstan’s position as a regional digital hub, attract foreign investment, create skilled jobs and support technological development. However, their benefits should be balanced against the demands they place on the power system.
“Pay for the costs you create; earn benefits for the value you provide,” she said, outlining her proposed approach.
According to Berdigulova, Ekibastuz offers a cold climate, a strategic location and relatively affordable electricity. A 125-megawatt data center is expected to come online in the first half of 2027, with another 125-megawatt facility planned for 2028. The broader Data Center Valley could expand to one gigawatt.
The Energy Ministry’s forecast balance projects roughly 28% growth in domestic electricity consumption between 2026 and 2032, highlighting the need to assess new computing demand alongside wider economic growth.
“The primary bottleneck to expansion is electricity supply and, crucially, grid transmission and substation capacity,” Berdigulova said.
She explained that using spare capacity differs significantly from connecting a facility that requires new generation, transmission lines or substations.
“A single large data center can consume as much electricity as a small city,” Berdigulova said.
Building the infrastructure to serve such facilities can take years, directly limiting the pace of AI expansion.
Where additional infrastructure is needed, operators should bear an appropriate share of the costs, she said.
Berdigulova recommended long-term contracts, minimum billing commitments, financial guarantees and exit fees. Charges should also reflect the amount of grid capacity reserved by an operator, alongside the electricity it actually consumes.
The United States offers lessons on both the benefits and risks of growing data center demand, she said. Citing research by the Electric Power Research Institute, Berdigulova noted that growth can spread fixed grid costs across greater electricity sales and encourage investment in new capacity.
The study estimated that doubling data center capacity reduced residential electricity rates by roughly 4%, while growth between 2019 and 2024 lowered average rates by around 6%. However, where generation and grid infrastructure cannot keep pace with demand, pressure on prices can increase.
For Kazakhstan, she proposed special tariff arrangements for large consumers, direct investor contributions to grid upgrades, and partnerships involving dedicated generation and battery storage.
Before approving connections for facilities exceeding 50 to 100 megawatts, she recommended requiring audited demand forecasts, proof of financing, construction schedules and system impact studies. The national energy regulator, working with KEGOC, should determine how additional infrastructure costs are allocated.
Operators should also receive financial incentives when they provide measurable benefits to the electricity system, including on-site generation, storage or the ability to adjust consumption.
Nighttime computing could offer another opportunity. Kazakhstan’s time difference with North America may allow some AI training and batch processing to take place when domestic electricity demand is lower.
“By introducing time-varying (time-of-use) electricity tariffs, Kazakhstan can incentivize operators to shift flexible, compute-heavy workloads to off-peak hours,” Berdigulova said.
She cautioned that not all workloads can be rescheduled, and overseas demand will not always match Kazakhstan’s electricity supply patterns.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is exploring investment opportunities in developing a data center network in Kazakhstan.