KATHMANDU, Oct 25: Meteorologist Binod Pokharel has forecast three to four days of rain across Nepal from Thursday, with heavy rainfall possible in some areas. He said the period from Thursday night to Friday night could pose the greatest risk.
In a weather forecast video he shared, Pokharel said a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal is expected to move towards Nepal. The likelihood of heavy rain could increase as another westerly weather system is also expected to become active, he said.
According to Pokharel, several weather forecasting models indicate that the system will move towards Nepal through Andhra Pradesh in India. It is expected to reach Nepal around October 27, or Kartik 11 to 12. Clouds may begin to appear from Tuesday, with rain potentially starting on Thursday night, he said.
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Bagmati Province likely to receive heaviest rainfall
Pokharel said heavy rainfall could occur in various parts of the country between Kartik 12 and 15. Several areas of Bagmati Province could receive more than 150 millimetres of rain over four days. Some areas of Koshi and Gandaki provinces may also receive substantial rainfall, he said.
His forecast identified 29 districts at risk from prolonged rain or heavy downpours within a short period. Most of these districts lie in Lumbini, Gandaki, Bagmati and Koshi provinces.
Pokharel also warned of possible heavy rain in Manang, urging residents and authorities to remain alert. The district, which has previously suffered loss of life from avalanches, could face additional risks from further rainfall, he said.
According to Pokharel, the system moving in from the Bay of Bengal is expected to bring substantial moisture into Nepal. Another trough developing in the upper atmosphere could further support rainfall. Nepal’s mountainous terrain may also intensify precipitation in some areas, he said.
The forecast indicates that Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces are likely to face relatively less impact, although other provinces could experience significant rainfall.
Pokharel cautioned that weather forecasts may change as new data become available, meaning the districts at risk and expected rainfall amounts could also change. He said he would continue updating the forecast in the coming days.