The climate report also notes a heatwave on the mainland and in the Balearic Islands between 2 and 7 September. | Photo: H. Carter
Humphrey CarterPalma16/10/2026 11:58
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has today confirmed that last September was the warmest since at least 1961. The AEMET’s climate assessment describes this month as “extremely warm”, as it had the highest average temperature in the entire historical record – which dates back to the mid-20th century – and as “very dry”, as it was the seventh driest on record since then and the third driest when considering only the 21st century.
The average temperature on the Spanish mainland reached 22.5 °C, an anomaly of 3.4 °C above the reference period – which in this case spans from 1991 to 2020 – meaning that, for the first time, a September had an average temperature higher than the normal summer average of 22.1 °C for this same period.
The averages for the Balearics (24.5 ºC, with an anomaly of 2.2 ºC above the usual) and the Canary Islands (24.4 ºC, with an anomaly of 2.6 ºC) also support this ‘extremely hot’ characterisation.
With this heat, 2026 has broken the 1987 record – previously considered the warmest on record – by registering 0.7 °C higher than in 1987.
The climate report also notes a heatwave on the mainland and in the Balearic Islands between 2 and 7 September, as well as three further heatwaves in the Canary Islands: between 7 and 9 September, between 14 and 16 September, and between 24 and 27 September.
As regards rainfall, the ‘very dry’ classification is due to the accumulation on the Spanish mainland of just 15.9 litres per square metre (l/m²), a figure representing 36 per cent of the normal for the same reference period of 1991–2020. The situation was somewhat better in the Balearics, with 46.9 l/m², which is therefore classified as ‘dry’, and, above all, in the Canary Islands, with 4.3 l/m², classified as ‘normal’.
Paradoxically, September saw some episodes of intense, concentrated rainfall, such as on the 16th, when 71.9 l/m² fell at Valencia Airport, or on the 29th at Barcelona Airport, with 67.4 l/m². The CREO 2026 Forum, described the data as “bad news” and argued that adaptation to climate conditions must form part of investment decisions and spatial planning in order to “protect those who are most at risk, to prevent losses and damage, and also to ensure greater security for economic activity”.
And after a great start to October, it’s all going to apparently change this weekend. On Saturday, 17 October, cloudy spells with scattered showers are expected; from midday onwards, these could be occasionally heavy and accompanied by storms. There may also be some patches of morning mist.
Night-time temperatures will remain similar or rise slightly, whilst daytime temperatures will fall slightly. As for the wind, it will be light to moderate from the north and north-east.
Sunday will be the most challenging day The AEMET forecasts that Sunday will be the most challenging day of the week, as the cold front will have a more direct impact on Mallorca. In fact, the agency has issued a special warning for heavy rainfall in the Balearic Islands and along the Mediterranean coast.
Furthermore, it highlights that in the case of the Balearic Islands and Catalonia, heavy or very heavy rain will be accompanied by very strong winds and rough seas. Specifically, the AEMET’s forecast for 18 October in Mallorca predicts overcast skies with rain and showers that may be locally heavy or very heavy and persistent, accompanied by thunderstorms. Night-time temperatures will remain largely unchanged, whilst daytime temperatures will fall. Furthermore, the wind will be moderate from the north and north-east, with strong gusts at times.
Unstable weather conditions will remain significant for part of Monday, with overcast skies expected, tending towards cloudy spells. The Aemet warns that rain and showers may be locally heavy or very heavy and persistent, accompanied by thunderstorms; it is worth noting that these will ease off during the day. Temperatures will remain similar, and there will be a moderate north and north-easterly wind, with strong gusts at times, easing in the afternoon to a light to moderate south-easterly.