Japan's government has settled on leaving out a target to raise defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product over the next five years from the "three security documents" it plans to revise this year, local media reported. The 3.5% figure is the level sought by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, but Tokyo appears to be avoiding a firm commitment out of concern over the additional tax burden it would require. The government still intends to expand defense spending substantially in an effort to win over Washington.
The Asahi Shimbun reported on the 16th, citing multiple Japanese government officials, that the U.S. has repeatedly pressed Japan to spend 3.5% of GDP on defense. The three security documents consist of the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program, and together set out the core guidelines for Japan's defense policy.
The Asahi pointed to state finances as the main reason. Raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP would push the annual figure above 20 trillion yen (about 168 trillion won), adding to fiscal strain and making tax increases unavoidable to secure the funding. But for the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which has made cutting the consumption tax on food a signature policy while promoting growth through bold investment and spending, choosing to place a further burden on the public is not an easy option, the report said.
Even so, the government plans to increase defense outlays themselves, including a review of broader defense-related expenses. It is also considering bundling items outside the Defense Ministry's budget that contribute to security — in areas such as economic security, artificial intelligence and space — into a new category tentatively called "comprehensive security-related expenses," widening the scope of what counts as spending.
Some within the government have argued that broadening the range of security-related expenses could satisfy the 3.5% of GDP target sought by the U.S. The Asahi reported that some in the Japanese government also expect Washington to prioritize a long-term buildup of defense capabilities and not insist on spelling out the 3.5% figure itself.
What are the three security documents? The 2% goal has already been met
The three security documents are the core papers summarizing Japan's vision for its future defense strategy. The National Security Strategy is the top-level policy document on national security, laying out a government-wide strategy that covers not only traditional security but also broader fields including economic security, technology and intelligence. The National Defense Strategy sets out Japan's defense objectives and how to achieve them. The Defense Buildup Program addresses the level of defense capability Japan aims for and the scale of the budget. While the first two documents cover strategy and goals on a 10-year horizon, the Defense Buildup Program specifies the amounts needed for national defense over five-year periods.
The documents reached a turning point in 2022 under the cabinet of Fumio Kishida. The Kishida government adopted revisions centered on acquiring a "counterstrike capability" and raising defense spending from 1% of GDP to 2% by 2027. Unlike the previous principle of "exclusively defensive defense," under which force is used at a minimum level only after an attack, the revised documents explicitly allowed for a counterstrike capability to hit an enemy's missile launch sites based on the three conditions for the use of force — a change widely seen as significant.
Takaichi signaled a determination to strengthen the military by ordering an early revision of the three documents on the first day in office in October last year. The target of lifting defense spending to around 2% of GDP was also met ahead of schedule, with the budget set at about 11 trillion yen (about 92.74 trillion won).
The U.S., however, is calling for a steeper response. In its National Defense Strategy released in January this year, the Trump administration specified that allies should raise core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and total security spending, including related expenses, to 5%. South Korea also agreed to a phased increase in defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, as set out in a joint fact sheet with the U.S. released in November last year.