Bitcoin spent October 16 holding its ground above $80,000, trading in a range of roughly $81,800 to $82,060.
The day before, Bitcoin had dipped to a low of approximately $79,700. The recovery to around $82,000 followed comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that traders read as a sign the central bank is not rushing toward another rate increase.
A hot CPI print, then a shrug from the Fed chair
The pressure started with inflation. The US consumer price index for September came in at 3.7% year-on-year, above the 3.6% consensus forecast.
A tenth of a percentage point sounds trivial. For rate traders, it was enough to push up bets that the Fed would raise rates again at its October 27–28 meeting.
Then Warsh spoke. He indicated the Fed was not prepared to offer forward guidance on where monetary policy goes next.
Traders took that as less hawkish than feared. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate increase at the upcoming meeting dropped from about 28% to roughly 15%.
Seoul’s chip rout and Bitcoin’s divergence
While US rate expectations were shifting, South Korea’s stock market was having a rough stretch.
The KOSPI index fell as much as 7.5%, dragged down by memory chip makers. Investors worried about whether the current pace of AI spending can last, and about rising competition from China.
Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell between 9% and 11%.
Korean tech shares later recovered from the sell-off. Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $80,000 through the turmoil stood out.
Warsh’s Fed, so far
Warsh took over as Fed chair in May 2026. His tenure has already included a notable policy shift.
In September, the Fed delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4%. That move reversed the direction markets had grown used to and put the inflation fight back at the center of Fed policy.
With September’s CPI running above expectations, the obvious question became whether a second hike would follow quickly. Warsh’s refusal to commit either way leaves that question open heading into the late-October meeting.
What this means for crypto traders
The most immediate takeaway is that Bitcoin’s short-term direction remains tightly linked to the Fed’s next decision. A drop in hike odds from about 28% to roughly 15% coincided with Bitcoin recovering from approximately $79,700 to around $82,000.
Bitcoin absorbed three separate shocks in quick succession: an inflation surprise, a 7.5% intraday slide in a major Asian index, and uncertainty over Fed policy. It ended the stretch above $80,000.
The Fed meets on October 27–28, and the CME FedWatch probabilities will likely remain the most-watched gauge of how risky that meeting looks.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.