Key Stat That Explains NFL Leader Keon Coleman's Redemption Arc With Bills

The Buffalo Bills had high hopes for Keon Coleman when they drafted him in 2024. It may have taken some time, but he looks to be living up to their expectations.

In fact, Coleman's third year in the NFL looks like it could be his best yet. He was selected as a riser in the Bills On SI Bye Week Stock Report.

After scoring four touchdowns in each of his first two seasons with the Bills, Coleman has needed only six games to get to three on the year this season.

But one metric has shown that Coleman may be playing even better than a casual fan may expect. What it shows is that Coleman's development is fully in effect as he plays through his age-23 season.

Breaking down the analytics

One may be wondering: what exactly is EPA? It's Expected Points Added. The metric represents how much a single play increases or decreases a team's likelihood of scoring. So, in essence, no receiver in the NFL this season is enhancing his team's chances of scoring more than Coleman.

Other metrics back this up and show how well Coleman has played thus far. The Florida State product has the highest success rate (70.8 percent) and catch rate (79.2 percent) of his career. Coleman also has zero drops this year and has garnered a 138.0 passer rating when targeted (another career high).

The play of Coleman really seems to be tied to the fact that head coach Joe Brady has heavily invested in his development.

Brady's support paying off for Coleman

Brady's backing of Coleman when he was named Bills' head coach seems to be paying dividends. Especially as the Buffalo receiving corps dealt with injuries to D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer.

Brady elaborated on the maturity his third-year wideout is showing and how that has helped his play on the field.

"His play has never been his issue," said Brady. "And right now, there's not issues off the field. He's where he needs to be, he's handling everything like a pro."

It's encouraging to see just how strong Coleman has played in 2026. But like his head coach alluded to, his best days still look to be ahead.

"There's so much trust we have for him as the player, the development, and he continues to just make plays," said Brady.

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