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With less than two weeks to go before the congressional elections, Americans are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they were when the nation was emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump's economic approval rating is hitting an all-time low, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
Eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, the highest number since December 2023 and one of several ominous signs for Republicans in the new polling data released Thursday that show why their candidates are facing an uphill battle in the midterm.
Downbeat views on the economy are most intense among Democrats and independents, but there's been a strong move toward economic pessimism even among Republicans in recent months. Overall, 63% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy and the outlook, up one percentage point from the July survey. But that percentage now includes 35% of Republicans, up six points from July and the highest level of Republican pessimism of either of Trump's two terms.
"We got there not because of independents or Democrats getting more sour — it's because Republicans have," said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. "Since Trump has been president, [Republicans] have held on to a small margin saying that the current economy is either excellent or good. And now that has kind of broken and changed."
The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found Americans preferring Democratic control of Congress by a 52% to 45% margin. The seven percentage point Democratic edge represents a three percentage point gain for Democrats from the July survey.
The poll contained other foreboding signs for Republicans as well. It showed 72% of Democrats highly interested in the midterm election on Nov. 3, compared to just 62% of Republicans. Women are 10 percentage points more interested in the election than men, and they prefer Democratic control of Congress by 22 points. Independents prefer Democratic control by a wide 49% to 33% margin. And the majority of survey respondents said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on many of the issues they singled out as their top concerns, including corruption and the cost of food and gas.
Read the full survey results here.
In the eight states with competitive Senate races, respondents prefer Democratic congressional control by 4 percentage points. Trump carried those eight states by a combined 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.
The survey shows "things moving either away from Republicans or toward Democrats, depending how you want to look at it, in a way that would make me very nervous if I was leading Republican campaigns leading into these last two weeks," said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the poll.
Despite the economic gloom, Trump's overall approval rating has remained stable, though at just 40% approving and 59% disapproving. His current net approval of -19 percentage points compares with -8 a year ago.
More striking is the sharp nine-point drop in the president's net economic approval rating from just the last survey in July. The president's economic approval dropped to 34% from 38% in three months and disapproval rose to 65% from 60%. The net -31 economic approval is the lowest of either of Trump's two terms. The 65% disapproval rating is one percentage point higher than former President Joe Biden's worst showing and the highest for any president surveyed by CNBC going back to President Barack Obama.
Government corruption was identified as the top concern by 36% of respondents, and Democrats hold a 4-point lead on addressing the issue. On the cost of food and groceries, the second most important issue, the Democratic lead widened to +16 from +7 in the July survey. Democrats also topped Republicans on protecting democracy as well as dealing with the high price of gas.
Among those most interested in the election are respondents who identify corruption and protecting democracy as top issues, and they prefer Democratic congressional control by wide margins.
Republicans continued to hold a strong advantage on border security and immigration, but the lead on immigration fell to +9 from +15. Democrats, meanwhile, are seen as better at handling the issues of jobs and unemployment and Iran, which flipped from +2 for Republicans to +5 for Democrats.
The public continued to be skeptical of the value of the Iran war. The survey found just 46% of the public believe the military action was worth it to disrupt development of Iran's nuclear capabilities, down from a 53% majority in April. And just 35% say the military action was worth it given the rise in the price of gasoline.
While the survey showed continued deep divisions by party, there was near unity on the corruption issue. Ninety-three percent said elected officials, including the president and members of Congress, should not be allowed to personally own or trade stocks in individual companies that have contracts with the federal government. And 89% said companies owned by or invested in by a sitting president's immediate family members should not be allowed to recerive contracts from the federal government.
While corruption was a top issue, prices are clearly top of mind for registered voters. Taken together, concern about the cost of food, gas and housing is the top concern for 57% of respondents. Eighty percent say prices are rising, up five percentage points from a year ago, with 55% saying they are rising faster than usual, also up five points. The cost of food actually eclipses gas as a greater concern in the survey 34% to 23%. It's a top worry among most major demographic groups but is most elevated among those making $30,000 or less and supporters of the agenda of Democratic Socialists of America. Yet it's also the top issue for those Republicans who don't count themselves as MAGA supporters.
Both pollsters were cautious about how extensive Democratic gains could be. Roberts from POS said it's a battle between "the map and momentum."
"There are several indications nationally that the electorate is tilting more toward Democrats … but the movement is also fairly concentrated, each party's base is consolidating, and a 'big change' is dependent on Democrats flipping a lot of districts and states that Trump won handily just two years ago," he said.
Campbell doesn't see a "realignment" election like in 1994 and 2008, saying, "This looks like a return to the mean—young voters and voters of color returning to the Democratic fold, bolstered by independents being fed up with Trumpenomics." He adds, "At no point did anyone expect that Democratic candidates would suddenly pull 15% of the Republican vote."