ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is backing Indiana’s 22-game winning streak over Ohio State’s explosive passing game, picking the No. 5 Hoosiers to upset the No. 4 Buckeyes at noon ET Saturday in a Big Ten heavyweight fight on Fox.
“We’re riding the streak,” McElroy said on Always College Football. “We’re taking Indiana to win the game, 24-23.” That’s the same score as Ohio State’s collapse at Texas in September, and both teams enter 3-0 in Big Ten play.
Why is McElroy picking Indiana?
McElroy’s case for the Hoosiers starts at the line of scrimmage, where he believes the home team holds an edge on both sides of the ball.
“I think Indiana has an advantage along both lines of scrimmage,” McElroy said. “I think they can keep the possession count low enough, and they can make Ohio State’s offense one-dimensional because I think they can stop Ohio State’s run game.”
By McElroy’s count, Indiana allows 2.3 yards per carry, a top-four mark nationally, while Ohio State’s offense averages 4.3 yards per carry and ranks 81st. Texas exploited that same weakness in Austin, holding the Buckeyes to 94 rushing yards on 31 carries before scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
McElroy also cited a split that should concern Ohio State coach Ryan Day. “When his team loses the rushing battle, Ryan Day is just 13-12 as an FBS head coach,” McElroy said.
Ball security is the other pillar. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown 129 passes without an interception, according to McElroy, and the Hoosiers have committed only one turnover all season. “When his team doesn’t turn it over, Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is 29-1 as an FBS head coach,” he said.
Indiana showed it can win even when its formula bends. Nebraska held running back Turbo Richard and the Hoosiers to a season-low 65 rushing yards and led 17-6 early in the fourth quarter last Saturday, but Hoover hit wide receiver Nick Marsh for touchdowns of 75 and 44 yards, the second on fourth-and-1, to escape Lincoln with a 20-17 win. Cignetti said Marsh flashed open after Nebraska covered the receiver Indiana expected to get the ball.
That comeback kept the defending national champions among college football’s nine remaining undefeated teams. Still, history isn’t on Bloomington’s side, because Indiana hasn’t beaten Ohio State at home since 1988.
Ohio State offensive line injuries
The injury report could determine whether McElroy’s line-of-scrimmage argument holds. Six Ohio State players missed the 45-16 win over Maryland: wide receivers Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin, offensive linemen Phillip Daniels and Austin Siereveld, linebacker Christian Alliegro and nickel Jay Timmons.
“I don’t think we’ll get all of those guys back that were on the list, but for sure we’re going to get a good portion of them back for next week,” Day said after the game.
On Tuesday, Day said it looks like Daniels will return at right tackle after he missed four straight games following an injury against Texas. Gabe VanSickle, who filled in at right tackle against Maryland, will slide back to guard. However, Day offered no update on Siereveld, a senior who was scheduled to start at right tackle before an illness kept him out last week.
Day called Indiana’s defensive line one of the biggest challenges Ohio State will face all season. McElroy noted the Hoosiers have 20 sacks, third in the FBS, despite rarely blitzing, and singled out defensive lineman Stephen Daley, who’s coming off his second straight two-sack game.
“If Indiana can get two sacks, three sacks or more, then the deep ball never gets the time it needs to develop,” McElroy said.
How can Ohio State still win?
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith gives the Buckeyes the best counter to everything McElroy laid out. The Heisman Trophy favorite has 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns, and his two scores against Maryland pushed his career total to 38, one shy of the Big Ten record.
Cignetti didn’t downplay the assignment this week. “There is no one like him right now playing at this level,” Cignetti said. “He’s a freak. We’re going to have to do a great job on him.” Indiana has held Smith out of the end zone in two career meetings, but McElroy pointed to a vulnerability in the Hoosiers’ secondary: opponents complete nearly 44% of their deep throws, a bottom-30 mark nationally.
That matters against Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who went 13-of-21 for 242 yards and four touchdowns against Maryland and leads an offense averaging more than 11 yards per attempt. McElroy conceded the Buckeyes’ signal-caller will keep this close. “I think Julian Sayin will hit enough downfield to make sure this thing is really tight,” he said.
ESPN’s efficiency ratings agree the margin is thin, with Ohio State at 89.2 and Indiana at 89.1, the fifth- and sixth-best marks in the country. Ohio State’s pass defense also allows fewer than five yards per attempt, according to McElroy, and he said Hoover has looked his most ordinary against man coverage like the Buckeyes play.
If Daniels returns at right tackle and Ohio State keeps Sayin upright on early downs, Smith gives the Buckeyes a receiver capable of overriding the advantages McElroy handed Indiana up front.
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