ISLAMABAD: Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Zubair Mahmood Hayat on Wednesday warned that recurring crises between the two nuclear-armed Pakistan and India could become increasingly dangerous if unresolved disputes, diminishing restraint and the absence of sustained political dialogue continued to undermine regional security.
“Where disputes remain unresolved and restraint becomes a diminishing asset, each successfully terminated crisis can tempt a revisionist actor, like India, to begin the next one higher on the ladder,” he said.
Gen Zubair stressed the need to resolve the underlying disputes between Pakistan and India, warning that ending a crisis without addressing its root causes would only pave the way for a more dangerous confrontation.
“Terminating a crisis without addressing its root causes only sets the stage for the next, more dangerous conflict,” Gen Zubair said at the concluding session of the second Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference, hosted by the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), an Islamabad-based think tank specialising in strategic issues.
“In the subcontinent, the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir cannot be wished away, scrutinised out of existence or reduced to an administrative matter. Similarly, water cannot be converted from a shared necessity into an instrument of power and pressure,” he maintained, emphasising the need to resolve the Kashmir dispute and restore the Indus Waters Treaty.
Referring to the May 2025 military conflict between Pakistan and India, Gen Zubair said Pakistan had demonstrated its military capabilities and political control through a calibrated response that prevented India from imposing a unilateral fait accompli without triggering an all-out war.
The conflict, he said, underscored the limitations of relying on deterrence alone to prevent future confrontations.
“The larger lesson is not that conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbours can be made routine; it is that there is no tested and certified safe space for war,” he said.
Gen Zubair warned that any future crisis could unfold under different circumstances, involving new technologies, different political leaders and significantly shorter decision-making timelines, thereby increasing the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
He said that South Asia remained far from lasting peace because it lacked an inclusive regional security framework, effective crisis-management mechanisms and sustained political dialogue. He attributed the situation to India’s Hindutva ideology and the influence of the RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh (RSS).“The region lives between deterrence that prevents the worst and disputes that repeatedly regenerate danger,” he said.
He also warned that unverified allegations could trigger a major conflict before governments had established the facts. A future conflict, he cautioned, could begin with an accident rather than a deliberate decision by a state, particularly when allegations spread faster than they can be verified. He cited the Operation Sindoor in this context.
Speaking at one of the working sessions, SVI Executive Director DrNaeemSalik said the weakening of the international arms-control architecture, growing uncertainty surrounding extended nuclear deterrence and intensifying strategic competition among major powers were increasing global nuclear risks.
He expressed concern that the integration of artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities and advanced conventional weapons into military operations was creating new pathways to nuclear escalation.
The two-day Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference brought together Pakistani and international nuclear experts to discuss regional deterrence, lessons from the May 2025 conflict, the changing global nuclear order and options for reducing nuclear risks.
The agenda also covered the erosion of arms-control frameworks, emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons, the militarisation of space, ballistic missile defence and the implications of great-power competition for global non-proliferation efforts.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026