If Donald Trump had known what consequences would arise from his war on Iran, would he do it all over again?
In a few short months, the United States' intervention in the Middle East has caused Tehran to demand more control over the Strait of Hormuz, exposed Washington's regional allies to months of missile and drone attacks, and sent American and global fuel prices soaring. In a futile attempt to rectify that final point, Trump struck a dastardly deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring Russian diesel back onto international markets.
Now, the fallout has reached thousands of miles away, to the bitter waters of the Russian Arctic.
South Korea, one of America’s most important Asia-Pacific allies, has just completed a pioneering Arctic shipping voyage to Europe, sending a container vessel through more than 3,500 miles of Russian-controlled coastline and back. President Lee Jae Myung explicitly linked Seoul’s determination to develop the route alongside Russia to the disruption caused by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Putin is only too happy to welcome the business.
A Non-Scenic Route
On Tuesday, Lee traveled to the sprawling port city of Busan to celebrate the return of the PanStar Acro, the first South Korean container ship to complete a round trip to Europe through the Arctic.
The vessel left Busan on August 22 and reached Felixstowe, Britain, just 20 days later, before continuing to Rotterdam and Gdansk. Its journey along Russia's Northern Sea Route shaved roughly 10 days off the conventional passage through the Suez Canal. It returned home on October 11, completing the mammoth voyage in just 50 days.
For a country whose economy depends heavily on shipping cars, electronics and industrial goods worldwide, those time savings could translate into substantial commercial advantages. But the bigger attraction is security.
"The recent tensions in the Middle East have clearly shown how economies can be destabilized when maritime routes are blocked," Lee said at Tuesday’s ceremony, describing the Arctic as another shipping option to fall back on in times of crisis.
South Korea began planning Arctic trials before Trump’s military unleashed fury over Tehran, but the ever-expanding conflict in the Middle East has given Seoul extra motivation to double down.
Iran’s disruption of Hormuz has wreaked havoc on Gulf shipping, with consequences stretching far beyond oil prices. Dubai’s Jebel Ali port, one of the world’s busiest container terminals, saw cargo throughput collapse by an astonishing 90.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to Emirati logistics giant DP World.
The Arctic can’t replace Hormuz as an outlet for Gulf oil, but it offers Asia and Europe a sorely needed alternative to the Suez Canal and Red Sea, where Houthi attacks have created their own problems.
More ships are using it than ever. Norway’s Centre for High North Logistics counted 104 completed transits through Russia’s Northern Sea Route by September 30, exceeding the 103 recorded throughout all of 2025. Four vessels completed direct voyages between Asian and European ports, up from just one last year.
That’s still a drop in the ocean compared with the vast amount of traffic passing through Suez. But for Putin, every foreign ship heading north represents another potential customer for Russia’s expanding Arctic transport network.
Putin’s Polar Ambitions
Moscow has spent years trying to turn the Northern Sea Route from a frigid corridor serving its own oil, gas and mining industries into an international shipping artery connecting Europe and Asia.
Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom administers the route, overseeing navigation permits, port infrastructure and the nuclear icebreaker fleet that makes passage possible when the seas are frozen.
The potential rewards go well beyond transit revenue. Foreign ships using the corridor must navigate Russian regulations, while regular services could generate more demand for Russian icebreakers, port services and maintenance hubs. A dependable shipping route would not only bring an economic boon, but afford Moscow outsized influence over a new avenue for global trade.
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Trump's Middle East adventure is excellent marketing material for the Kremlin’s ambitions.
On September 4, Igor Sechin, chief of the state-owned energy corporation Rosneft, described the Hormuz crisis as a "moment of truth" for the global energy system.
"Given the current environment, the most important (logistics route) is the Northern Sea Route, which enables us to reduce the time required to deliver cargo to our trading partners by 1.5-2 times and cut costs by one-third," he said.
Then, on Monday, Putin’s aide and former intelligence chief Nikolai Patrushev met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing to deliver a proposal positioning the Northern Sea Route as a way for both countries to avoid the impact of Western sanctions and "reshape the geoeconomic map" away from the U.S.
"Russia has a long maritime border, developed port infrastructure, and unique experience in shipping in northern seas. China has powerful shipbuilding and logistics potential, as well as extensive experience in organizing maritime trade. Today, it is important to combine these advantages," Patrushev told Wang.
Moscow is courting partners well beyond China, however, including those for whom Trump’s intervention in Iran has spelled disaster.
In August, Moscow approved plans for Rosatom and Dubai-based DP World to establish a joint logistics venture involving Russia’s Far Eastern Shipping Company (FESCO). Under the proposed arrangement, Russia would retain 51 percent ownership, with DP World contributing capital and access to its global logistics expertise. That’s the same DP World whose flagship port in Dubai saw container traffic collapse by 90 percent as Hormuz descended into chaos.
However, Putin still faces a fair few obstacles before the Northern Sea Route becomes a reliable economic and political asset.
The PanStar Acro carried just 737 container-equivalents of paying export cargo on its trial voyage—barely 27 percent of its total capacity. Meanwhile, the Northern Sea Route’s unpredictable conditions, high insurance costs, and winter inaccessibility quickly eat into the savings from lower fuel use and shorter transit times.
Strategic Own Goals
Lee insists South Korea’s push into Arctic shipping won't let it avoid complying with trading restrictions on Russia.
But Seoul’s economic security depends on keeping its exports moving, and Trump’s war has painfully reminded it that relying on the stability of traditional trade routes—or trusting partners to make sound strategic decisions—is risky business.
"There are no permanent enemies, nor permanent allies," Lee said at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
As if to prove his point, the White House last week reversed years of painstaking efforts to restrict Russian energy exports when Trump announced a diesel deal with his Kremlin counterpart.
American diesel prices have soared nearly 70 percent since Trump's war in Iran began, reaching well over $6 per gallon, yet energy analysts warn the volumes of Russian diesel set to reenter the market are far too small to meaningfully affect global fuel prices. The initial 300,000 tonnes of Russian fuel Trump expects to arrive this month amount to less than a day's worth of American diesel consumption.
The political benefits for Putin, however, were immediate. Not only did the president of the United States personally negotiate relief for Russian energy exports, but he also rounded on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of worsening American fuel prices by targeting Russian refineries with Kyiv's drones.
Trump went on to declare that Ukraine needed a new president capable of making a deal with Moscow, even as Putin’s forces continued raining missiles and drones down on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
A bipartisan group of 12 U.S. senators, including Republicans Susan Collins and Thom Tillis, condemned Trump's diesel deal as a "gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies"—one that arose out of conditions created by an ill-advised foray into the Middle East.
The Arctic is another arena where Russia stands to benefit from the White House’s strategic failure.
South Korea isn't choosing Russia over the U.S., nor is Putin about to monopolize international container shipping. But Washington's inability to secure a lasting resolution to its own war on Iran has strengthened the case for alternative trade networks, including one that Moscow and Beijing are working to develop together.