Going into this season, the state plan from head coach Sheldon Keefe was to play a fourth line of Amadeus Lombardi, Cody Glass, and Connor Brown. Unfortunately, Connor Brown sustained an injury in practice at the end of the preseason, holding him out of these first two weeks of regular season action. As of now, Brown is expected to return to practice over the course of the next week. To date, Brown has not been placed on injured reserve, which meant that the Devils needed to waive Stefan Noesen for reassignment to the AHL when Johnny Kovacevic was nearing his return from injury.
Yesterday afternoon, the Devils played a very solid game against the Vancouver Canucks, led in part by the speed and intensity of the fourth line. After the first two games of the season, which featured Noesen on that line, Sheldon Keefe inserted Jesper Boqvist to get more speed out of the right wing spot. After all, this was the initial vision from Keefe, who wanted a fast fourth line that could forecheck and create scoring chances. They created a goal for Boqvist against the Mammoth, and they did it again yesterday when Boqvist had the game winner. But even if they didn’t score, it was hard not to notice them.
This actually puts Sheldon Keefe in a tough spot. If neither Amadeus Lombardi nor Jesper Boqvist look like they should be taken out of the lineup anytime soon with the quick and easy chemistry they’ve built, who should come out of the lineup? Let’s go over a few trends and come up with some ideas.
Trend: Anthony Mantha’s Ice Time
I was furious yesterday when Anthony Mantha took a hooking penalty in the neutral zone just a few minutes into the first period. At that point, the Vancouver Canucks looked like they had hardly woken up, barely possessing the puck for long enough to draw a penalty like that. I was carrying a bit of frustration over from the Islanders game, when Amadeus Lombardi was guilty of similar actions twice in the first period, which set the tone for the Devils’ bad game at the time. And since Anthony Mantha is a veteran NHLer, I was doubly unhappy with him as I hoped that Keefe would use the opportunity to send a message about staying in control early in the game. It might not have been too obvious at first, but Mantha ended up with the least ice time of any Devil in the game.
Jesper Boqvist had the second-least ice time at 12:29, which is more than a fair amount for a fourth liner to play in a single game. But Mantha, who lined up with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt to start, only finished with 9:40. This has been a continuation of a trend throughout the season, as Mantha has gone from 17:24->15:08->12:28->9:40 over the course of four games. Considering that Connor Brown had some success on a line with Jack Hughes at the end of last season, scoring 21 points in his last 23 games, this could be where Brown gets onto the ice upon his return.
Trend: Poor Third Line Results
While the third line of Arseny Gritsyuk, Evan Rodrigues, and Dawson Mercer looked good on paper, I was less convinced that this was the best idea for these players. After all, Arseny Gritsyuk played 350 minutes with current fourth line center Cody Glass last season, and they led the line that had the best all-around numbers on the team last season. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils had a 58.87 CF%, they had 58.57% of shots on goal, 55.36% of expected goals, and 56.25% of real goals when these two were on the ice together. Mind you, they often played out of a defensive posture, only taking 46.36% of their zone faceoffs in the offensive zone while also having a PDO of .990 due to below-average goaltending. This season, they’ve only played 2:33 together.
Instead, Gritsyuk has largely played with Evan Rodrigues. This is how that has broken down:
- Gritsyuk with Rodrigues: 38:00 TOI, 60.98 CF%, 21-17 shots, 0-1 goals, 59.66 xGF%, 57.89 OZFO%
- Gritsyuk without Rodrigues: 10:54 TOI, 74.29 CF%, 9-3 shots, 0-0 goals, 83.31 xGF%
- Rodrigues without Gritsyuk: 9:09 TOI, 47.37 CF%, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 39.96 xGF%
I would not expect the third line to be held scoreless for much longer, but I am not sure giving this time to shake itself out is worth keeping Glass away from Gritsyuk. These two had worked very well in transition last season, and both Gritsyuk and Mercer (xGF% >90) have done very well in shifts away from Rodrigues this season. The Devils have this depth so they can beat up on other bottom six groups, so they might as well go back to the third line that did exactly that for them last season.
Idea: Rotating Scratches
With so many NHL-caliber forwards on the roster, it is impossible to get them all into games at the same time. The two players I have zeroed in on here in Mantha and Rodrigues will need to be contributors for the Devils to reach their full potential this season. However, given their early-season performances, I would consider scratching them interchangeably — but they would not be the only ones in this rotation.
If Rodrigues is Scratched
If Evan Rodrigues sat for a game, it would be a good opportunity to test some things out. These would be games where you can find out:
- Can Boqvist, Lombardi, or Mercer center the fourth line?
- Can Mantha provide extra bottom six scoring?
Here are two bottom six possibilities if Brown comes in for Rodrigues and plays on the Hughes line:
- Gritsyuk-Glass-Mantha and Lombardi-Mercer-Boqvist
- Gritsyuk-Glass-Mercer and Boqvist-Lombardi-Mantha
Having so many possible centers in that bottom six should help Sheldon Keefe work out any lineup, even if someone like Rodrigues sits. I would think that after trading for Lombardi and getting him used to playing in the NHL as a winger, it would be a good idea to try him out as a center at some point as well. Lombardi noted during preseason that playing on the wing is a very new experience to him.
If Mantha is Scratched
If Anthony Mantha is scratched, by comparison, there is less that Keefe is forced to experiment with. Brown in for Mantha serves as more of a one-to-one swap, though there are some things he can try beyond lining Brown up with Hughes and Bratt. Any of Dawson Mercer, Evan Rodrigues, Arseny Gritsyuk, or even Cody Glass could get a look with that line, and I would argue that Keefe should be willing to try any of them as long as the Hughes line is not scoring.
Who Else Can Sit?
While I think that Mantha and Rodrigues have not been playing their best yet, it would be foolish to relegate either of them to the scratch suite too often. The easy answer is to have any player sit out for a game when they suffer a minor injury even if they would normally play through it. There are some players who can have exceptions there, such as Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt, but the list should not be made too long. I would identify the following players as guys who can definitely use an occasional day off for various reasons.
- Amadeus Lombardi: Lombardi has only played 44 and 47 games over the last two seasons. The longer he stays on the fourth line, the more likely he can use an occasional day off to stay fresh and healthy.
- Jesper Boqvist: Jesper Boqvist has been on fourth line duty for three seasons now. He has been rather durable, having played 70 or more games (31 in the AHL included in 2023-24) for four straight seasons, but his high-intensity role can take a toll.
- Cody Glass: Glass has had his share of injuries. Last year was the first time he hit 70 games since 2022-23, and he hit 70 on the dot. If Glass ever gets a bit banged up, he’s better off sitting a game than risking an aggravated injury.
- Arseny Gritsyuk: While I see Gritsyuk as a top six forward in quality, he has never played more than 66 games in his professional career. He had to miss the end of last season after having surgery in early April due to a late-March injury, and it would be best to keep him fresh down the stretch.
Beyond Mantha, Rodrigues, and the above four, other players are probably going to get hurt here and there. But even if the Devils magically played at full health for the whole season, a player who gets scratched one out of every six games is still going to hit 70 games out of 84. It might be a bit unusual, but keeping everyone fresh with still-consistent playing time could serve them well by late April.
You might be asking: why not sit Dawson Mercer? Unlike the players listed above, I am not concerned about his durability over the course of a full season, as he has not yet missed a game in his entire NHL career. And since both Gritsyuk and Mercer have far better early numbers without Rodrigues at five-on-five than Rodrigues has without them, he is simply not on my list yet. Despite a reduction in ice time on the third line, Mercer has actually been getting more shots on net to start this season. Through three games, he has 11 shots on goal out of 14 attempts, which represents a doubling of shots on goal per 60 minutes at five-on-five (11.45/60, up from 5.46/60 last season). Aggression with the puck is one of the areas I wanted to see Mercer address this season, and I would think the goals are going to eventually follow with his career shooting percentage of 13.6%.
Special Teams Concerns
Sitting certain players has impacts on special teams deployment, but I do not think Sheldon Keefe should lose sleep over this. Rodrigues, for example, plays on both the penalty kill and the second unit power play. Mantha plays on the second unit power play. Cody Glass plays on the penalty kill. Arseny Gritsyuk plays on the power play in addition to occasional penalty killing shifts. But when Connor Brown returns to the lineup, they are gaining one of, if not their best penalty killing forward. Brown also played a bit on the first power play unit at the end of last season.
As long as the penalty kill has at least two centers (Hischier and one of Glass/Rodrigues), I think any lineup that the Devils put out there will be able to get the job done.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of this issue? Do you think rotating scratches is a good idea? Or should Sheldon Keefe just try to stick with a lineup until there’s another injury? Leave your thoughts in the comments below and thanks for reading.