MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Rosal (Champi) slightly intensified over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday afternoon, October 20, with its maximum sustained winds again reaching 195 kilometers per hour from the previous 185 km/h.
The super typhoon’s gustiness also increased from 230 km/h to 240 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 5 pm bulletin on Tuesday.
Rosal was last spotted 1,270 kilometers east of Central Luzon at 4 pm, still moving west northwest at 25 km/h. It had entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 10:40 am.
The super typhoon is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, but it will still affect parts of the country due to its size and intensity. It will be closest to extreme Northern Luzon from Thursday, October 22, to Friday, October 23.
On Tuesday evening, Rosal’s trough or extension may cause scattered rain and thunderstorms in more areas, with the latest forecast now covering the entire regions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas.
From Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon, or a 24-hour period, these two provinces in Northern Luzon are seen to have significant rain due to Rosal:
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan
For now, Batanes, along with Ilocos Norte and Babuyan Islands, will just have isolated light rain due to the northeasterly windflow.
Meanwhile, more areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Tuesday, which means they should prepare for strong winds from the super typhoon:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- northern part of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud)
- northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-lo, Santa Teresita, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan)
- northeastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
- northeastern part of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Rosal is Signal No. 2 or 3.
The northeasterly windflow and the periphery or outer bands of the super typhoon will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:
Tuesday, October 20
- Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, most of Caraga, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental
Wednesday, October 21
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Polillo Islands, Bicol, Romblon, Eastern Visayas, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Bohol, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao Region, Sarangani, Zamboanga del Norte
Thursday, October 22
- most of the country
Seaboards affected by Rosal will gradually see worsening conditions. Here is PAGASA’s updated forecast for the next 24 hours:
Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; seaboard of Isabela; northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; southeastern seaboard of Batanes; northeastern seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 4.5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Batanes; remaining eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon – waves up to 4 meters high
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboard of Aurora; remaining seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Seaboards of northern Quezon; eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands and Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group; remaining seaboards of Cagayan, Aurora, and Camarines Norte – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate to rough seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Seaboards of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, and Davao Occidental; eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental; northern and eastern seaboards of Quezon; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; southern seaboard of Davao Oriental; remaining northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur; remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao-Bucas Grande Island Group – waves up to 2 meters high
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PAGASA said Rosal will move generally west northwest until Wednesday, October 21, before heading generally northwest until Friday morning. Afterwards, it may turn north northwest to north starting Friday afternoon, until it leaves PAR by Friday evening or early Saturday morning, October 24.
The weather bureau also sees possible intensification in the coming hours as Rosal moves over the Philippine Sea, but it could weaken into a typhoon on Thursday evening or early Friday morning.
Rosal is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2026, and the first for October. PAGASA earlier estimated the country may have one or two tropical cyclones during the month.
The Philippines is currently in a transition period to the northeast monsoon or amihan, following the end of the southwest monsoon or habagat, which was announced last October 5.
The northeast monsoon typically brings surges of cold temperatures, but the upcoming amihan period could be warmer as the existing strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is predicted to become very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026. – Rappler.com