The Center Party and Social Democrats topped Emor's October poll as long-time leader Isamaa slipped, with voters' party loyalties still far from firm, said expert Aivar Voog.
Voog, a polling expert at Emor, told ERR on Friday that party ratings had remained largely unchanged over the last year, but shifted more sharply in recent months as parties ramp up campaigning ahead of the March 2027 Riigikogu elections.
He noted that new members may also be influencing support.
Isamaa had long led the rankings, but its supporters' loyalty was never particularly firm, Voog said, commenting on the party's slide to third place. "They have a significant mass of incidental [voters] and that has started to redistribute itself," he added.
He expects a clearer picture to emerge early next year, as some parties begin to stand out and attract undecided voters.
Longtime Foreign Ministry secretary general and security expert Jonatan Vseviov announced Thursday that he is joining the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and intends to run next spring as their candidate for prime minister. His move could affect the party's next poll result.
"He's certainly well known among opinion leaders and educated people, but little known to the wider electorate," Voog said, adding that while Vseviov has strong foreign and security policy chops, he still needs to prove himself on economic issues.
Mobilizing support
The Social Democrats, previously most popular among younger voters, are now also the top choice among middle-aged voters, narrowly overtaking Isamaa among ethnic Estonians. Voog said this could help offset a weakness, as younger supporters are less likely to vote than middle-aged voters.
Voog said the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) may also struggle to mobilize its supporters in March, as its typical supporter is a man over 60 who lives outside the capital.
EKRE supporters tend to rely on alternative media and the party's own channels, making them less susceptible to major media outlet influence and potentially more loyal.
Emor's latest poll put the party above 13 percent, but Voog said it remains unclear whether EKRE can not just broaden its appeal, but also convert support into votes at the ballot box.
Fight for voters
Voog said right-leaning voters in Estonia may split between Isamaa, EKRE, the Reform Party and Parempoolsed, while more conservative voters may choose between EKRE, Isamaa and the Center Party, setting several major parties up to compete for the same voters.
The Social Democrats, meanwhile, might benefit from voters abandoning the poorly rated Eesti 200, though some may instead shift their support to the Reform Party.
Voog said more conservative voters tend to be less active and turn out to vote at lower rates than those with more liberal views. Less active voters tend to be less educated and find it harder to decide whom to vote for, he explained, adding that they are also likely to consume less media.
While liberal voters dominated the 2023 Riigikogu elections, conservative forces had the upper hand in 2019, and Voog expects conservative parties will likely come out on top again next spring.
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