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The Texas Longhorns have lost two straight games and look to rebound as they host Ole Miss. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Ole Miss-Texas prediction and pick.
Ole Miss comes into the game 5-1 on the season. It was a tight first game as Ole Miss faced off with Louisville in Nashville, Tennessee. Ole Miss hit a field goal as time expired to win 41-38. After knocking off Charlotte, they hosted former head coach Lane Kiffin and LSU. Trinidad Chamliss ran in a 14-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give Ole Miss the 32-24 victory. The next week would be a complete disaster, visiting Florida. They fell 52-28. Since then, the Rebels have defeated Vanderbilt and Missouri. It was complete domination for Ole Miss against Missouri, winning 31-3.
Meanwhile, Texas opened the season 4-0. After taking out Texas State, they had a massive comeback victory over Ohio State, winning 24-23. They would then defeat UTSA and Tennessee on the road. In the Red River Rivalry, Arch Manning struggled late. Texas had a ten-point lead at the half, but multiple late Manning turnovers led to a 27-24 win for Oklahoma. Last time out was another difficult game for Texas. Texas once again had a ten-point lead, this time facing Florida. Once again, they let their opponent back in the game. Florida held the lead to 27-17 until Manning found Cam Coleman for a touchdown, but they could not score again, and Texas lost 27-14.
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This will be just the eighth meeting between the two schools. The last time they met was in 2013, and Ole Miss won 44-23, but that win was vacated. Ole Miss has beaten Texas just one other time, defeating the Longhorns in the 1958 Sugar Bowl.
Ole Miss vs. Texas Odds
Ole Miss: +3.5 (-118)
Texas: -3.5 (-102)
Over: 54.5 (-105)
Under: 54.5 (-115)
Ole Miss vs. Texas Key Injuries
Ole Miss- RB Kewan Lacy (Probable), RB Makhi Frazier (Probable), OL Patrick Kutas (Probable)
Texas- DL Justus Terry (Probable), OL Jordan Coleman (Probable), OL Jaydon Chatman (Out), WR Kaliq Lockett (Out), RB Hollywood Smothers (Questionable), EDGE Colin Simmons (Out)
Ole Miss vs. Texas Betting Trends
– The Rebels are 3-3 against the spread this year, but have covered in two straight.
– Ole Miss is 11 against the spread on the road, and 1-1 as the underdog.
– The over is 3-3 for Ole Miss this year, including both times on the road.
– Texas is 1-5 against the spread and has failed to cover in five straight.
– Texas is 1-3 against the spread at home this year.
– The under has hit in four of six games for the Longhorns this year, and three of four at home
Keys to Ole Miss vs. Texas matchup
For Ole Miss, it is all about keeping on schedule. This year, when the offense has been able to keep its rhythm, it has been elite. They are ninth in the nation in points per game, 25th in third-down conversions, and 21st in yards per game. It is not a perfectly balanced offense either. They are 116th in the nation in rush play percentage, while sitting 23rd in pass play percentage, but the disparity works. Trinidad Chambliss is the reason why. He has passed for 1,676 yards this year while having 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He has also scored six times on the ground. Meanwhile, Kewan Lacy has been great when in the lineup, running for 352 yards and five scores. If they can keep Texas off balance, the lack of Colin Simmons in the lineup will show, and Ole Miss will put up major points.
On defense, they have to put pressure on Arch Manning. Manning has already thrown five interceptions and been sacked 17 times. Many of his mistakes have come under pressure, and Ole Miss is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Texas is 112th in the nation in sack rate currently, while 90th in interception rate. Blake Purchase has been solid this year. He has 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble, while Will Echoles has been great at creating pressure up the middle.
For Texas, they have to put Arch Manning in positive situations. That starts with the run game. With Hollywood Smothers potentially out for this game, that will put pressure on Raleek Brown. He has run for 265 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Manning has plenty of weapons to get the ball too if he has time. Ryan Wingo has been great this year, bringing in 26 receptions for 345 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, Cam Coleman has been a big play threat all year. He has 20 receptions for 336 yards and six touchdowns. Still, Manning needs time and protection to get the ball to Coleman.
On defense, losing Colin Simmons for the game is a massive blow. He has 10.5 sacks this year with two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. They have to contain Trinidad Chambliss in this game, and that will be difficult without Simmons. It is going to start with Justus Terry. The interior defensive lineman needs to get a solid push to put Chambliss into quick decisions. They also need to force some turnovers. Texas has just .8 takeaways per game this year, and if they are not going to create short fields, it is going to be a difficult day for Texas.
Ole Miss vs. Texas Prediction and Pick
The Longhorns have struggled to cover the spread this year, going just 1-5 against the spread and failing to cover in five straight games. Further, they are coming off back-to-back losses, and Arch Manning has been struggling. Texas is also without their best defensive player. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is riding high. They just shut down Missouri and held their potent running game to under 50 yards. The line has this set up to be a one-score game, and since the start of 2024, Ole Miss is 10-1 in one-score contests, including 2-0 this year. The road environment may be difficult for Ole Miss, but the Rebels get the win in this one. Further, Texas will struggle to score as the Rebels shut down the big plays, leading to the under hitting.
Final Ole Miss vs. Texas Prediction and Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) and Under 54.5 (-115)
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