Estonia must do more to influence decisions shaping Europe's security and Ukraine's future rather than risk having its own future decided by others, argues the author.
On October 9, U.S. presidential special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, senior Ukrainian security officials and national security advisers from France, Germany and the United Kingdom gathered at a golf club near Miami. Representatives of the European Commission and NATO were also at the table. For six hours, they discussed how to end the war in Ukraine, what security guarantees Ukraine should receive and what the security architecture of Ukraine and Europe should look like after the war.
At the same time, President Donald Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin, after which Trump announced a decision to allow Russia to resume selling large quantities of diesel fuel on the global market and expressed a willingness to ease sanctions on Russian fuel.
These developments should give us serious pause. We are living in extremely dangerous times, with the United States and Russia seeking a way to end the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to themselves. For us, there is a real danger that an agreement will be reached over our heads and that Europe's new security order will be decided by a small group of people somewhere at a Miami golf club.
Putin's objectives have not changed. He wants a Europe where great powers decide the fate of individual countries and where empires and spheres of influence prevail over free cooperation. Subjugating Ukraine would be an important step toward realizing that vision, but not the ultimate goal. There is no reason to believe Moscow has scaled back its demands. Instead, Russia is seeking to achieve through negotiations what it has failed to accomplish by military force.
All the fundamental questions remain unresolved. How will the war end? On what terms will peace be achieved? Will that peace guarantee Ukraine's security, freedom and opportunities for economic development, as well as our own? The answers to these questions will determine Europe's future for decades to come. That is why having a seat at the table where these decisions are made and being able to influence them is the single most important issue for Estonia's security and prosperity.
Even in Brussels, where we have a seat and a voice, we must know how to make ourselves heard. But the situation is even more complicated. As the Miami meeting demonstrated, decisions shaping Europe's future are not always made within common institutions. Crucial discussions may take place among a small group, without us, even when our own future is directly at stake.
Estonia cannot limit itself to commenting on decisions made by others after the fact. We must be able to secure a place in discussions to which we are not automatically invited and we must do so in a way that gives our positions real weight.
This requires political leadership, persuasiveness and courage. The prime minister must be capable of shaping international opinion, not merely attending meetings. When the great powers begin discussing Europe's future among themselves, is Estonia's prime minister capable of influencing Washington, Paris or Berlin on such matters?
Under Kaja Kallas, Estonia wielded more influence than its population or economic size would suggest. Kallas built personal relationships with European leaders, called them directly and actively participated in discussions that shaped Europe's policy toward Ukraine. She did not simply present Estonia's positions but also sought to influence other countries' decisions.
Under Prime Minister Kristen Michal, that ambition has disappeared. It is difficult to name a single major European security policy discussion in which Michal has convincingly taken a leadership role. Michal's government has voluntarily placed itself outside the circle of those shaping European foreign policy.
It is an open secret that Michal confines himself to reading out Estonia's official talking points at European Council meetings instead of actively trying to shape other countries' positions. While Kaja Kallas exchanged messages with Emmanuel Macron, Michal has shown no comparable active network of personal relationships or influence on the international stage. Yet this is precisely the kind of capability Estonia desperately needs right now. We do not need a prime minister who comments on decisions. We need a leader who helps shape them.
Actions, above all, are what give words weight. Estonia was a leading advocate of military assistance to Ukraine and had the moral authority to demand more from others because we were doing our part. Now, our efforts to organize that assistance have been overshadowed by confusion, scandals and questions about transparency. This is no way to build international trust and influence. Instead of setting an example for others, we now find ourselves embarrassed in front of them.
Estonia's future will not be secured by social media comments in Estonian or forceful statements aimed at domestic audiences. Securing it requires knowledge, relationships, well-considered proposals and the courage to speak uncomfortable truths. Above all, however, it requires the ability to persuade others and the willingness to back up words with actions.
Neither the Center Party nor Isamaa has a plan to increase Estonia's influence in the world. Mihhail Kõlvart has said that America will decide Ukraine's future and that Europe has no influence over it. Estonia cannot accept such apathy. Isamaa and Urmas Reinsalu offer forceful slogans, but slogans alone are not enough to stand up for Estonia's interests.
Estonia cannot simply wait for one of the major powers to invite us to the decision-making table. Europe's small and medium-sized countries must work more closely together, forge new alliances and identify common interests they can pursue collectively. This applies to both security and the economy. The more effectively we can align our interests with those of other countries, the greater our chances of making ourselves heard.
To achieve this, Estonia must be represented by people with the necessary preparation, knowledge, skills and international networks, as well as the determination and courage to shape Europe's future. People who know the decision-makers and understand how decisions are made and who attend meetings not to read out talking points but to shape the discussion.
Estonia's future depends on whether we are present when important decisions are made or only hear about them afterward. What is at stake is not Estonia's international prestige, but our security, prosperity and freedom. We cannot afford to have our future decided without us. Estonia must have a seat at the decision-making table.
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