EAST LANSING — The painful reality is that Michigan State is 2-5.
That record is painful. It would stink whether MSU had lost every game by 50 points or by one. This is a sport where, ultimately, only the final result and the letter "W" or "L" matter. What makes it sting more is that the Spartans are extremely close to having a completely different narrative.
'One Play Away'
Michigan State football's social media team posted a game trailer video on Friday night. The very first shot in the clip is of Pat Fitzgerald saying, "We're this close! Don't stop now!"
The overall message of the video was that MSU was basically "one play away." That's literally what MSU was last week against Illinois, when the Spartans opted to go all-in on a two-point conversion in overtime and got stopped.
Well, the Spartans are still "one play away." Michigan State's 24-21 loss to Northwestern didn't literally come down to one play this time, but there are a large number of plays to point to that feel especially painful after witnessing NU's 34-yard field goal sail through the uprights at the death.
What if MSU's trick play last week against the Illini worked? What if Alessio Milivojevic hit Rodney Bullard Jr. one of those times instead of overthrowing him? A couple of things click or bounce differently, and the Spartans would be 4-3 and thinking about a bowl trip.
Overthrows by Milivojevic
One thing that will be remembered from this one is the missed opportunities from Michigan State's offense. The Spartans finished with 21 points, but it could've easily been 28 or 35 (and therefore a win).
There were three instances where Milivojevic could've had Bullard for a touchdown this week. None of them connected. The very first shot was on MSU's opening drive on a third down. Bullard had two steps or so on his man, Milivojevic appeared to be looking his way, but he didn't pull the trigger. That play wound up being an incomplete pass intended for Chrishon McCray, and then Michigan State failed to convert on fourth down one snap later. One play away.
It then happened again during the second quarter on another fourth down. Milivojevic actually had two different receivers who could've potentially scored with a good throw. Fredrick Moore was also open, as was Bullard. Milivojevic, with a clean pocket, got the ball out, but the pass was a few feet too long. One play away.
Milivojevic's third miss came on a third down with a little more than six minutes remaining in the game. Bullard again got open on a go route. This one was overthrown enough that Bullard didn't even bother to extend his arms in an attempt to catch it. The miss brought up fourth down, and Michigan State was forced to punt. One play away.
"I think besides completing it, like, the read was right, the route was right, I just got to put it on his body," Milivojevic said after the game. "All I've got to do is give him a chance to go make a play, and that's what I have to do better."
It wasn't all bad from Milivojevic on Saturday. He had a beautiful deep ball pass for a touchdown to Bryson Williams, and he had two other throws up the seam or over the middle for explosive plays that felt like pro-level throws. Those misses have that "what if?" cloud hanging over him, though. One play away.
A Conservative Endgame
Fitzgerald has also not been afraid to get aggressive this season. He's gone for it on fourth down quite a bit, and his decision to go for two in overtime against Illinois speaks for itself a bit. The phrase "scared money don't make money" has been used in the past to explain that philosophy.
Michigan State and Fitzgerald got conservative when it was time to close out this game. The Spartans were a first down away from ensuring that the last play of regulation would be their field goal attempt. MSU decided to run on both first and second down into some heavier boxes. Northwestern used its final two timeouts after both plays.
Perhaps Michigan State had a pass play dialed up on 3rd-and-7, but that got wiped away after an illegal snap penalty from center Trent Fraley. MSU was then essentially forced to run the ball again on third-and-12. One play away.
The other interesting part is that the Spartans didn't center the ball for Liam Boyd's potential go-ahead field goal that was blocked. There's a good chance Boyd wanted the ball on the right hash, but it not being centered allowed Northwestern to overload the left side of its FG block team. That overload worked against a Michigan State special teams unit that had allowed multiple blocked field goals or punts this season already.
Even then, executing a 33-yard field goal happens probably nine times out of 10. This was the one. One play away.
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