A new claim about the Brexit referendum has set off an almighty row in Britain over Russian interference – and fuelled arguments about whether the country might one day rejoin the European Union.
The victors of the 2016 vote are crying foul after Prime Minister Andy Burnham named Russian state agencies as key culprits in trying to influence the referendum.
Meanwhile, the “Remainers” who opposed the split from Europe are praising Burnham for finally admitting what some observers said at the time was a clear case of foreign interference.
The timing is especially sensitive. Burnham believes Brexit has damaged Britain over the past decade, so he wants to tighten ties with the EU in talks next month in the hope of lifting growth.
But his stance is heresy for the “Leave” campaigners who suspect Burnham will one day call a new vote to reverse Brexit.
Burnham’s new quotes about old votes triggered headlines on Monday, when he went public about advice he received when he became prime minister and asked about foreign interference in the referendum.
“I don’t think we knew back then the extent to which there was state-sponsored interference in the British democratic process,” Burnham said.
“But I asked the question coming into Downing Street: Was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia? And I’ve had the clear answer that yes, there was.”
The referendum result was reasonably close: 51.9 per cent voted to leave and 48.1 per cent voted to remain.
Burnham made his remarks on a podcast, the Rest is Politics, with hosts Alastair Campbell, a former Labour press secretary, and Rory Stewart, a former Conservative cabinet minister. Both are “Remainers” and wanted to canvass this issue with Burnham. The prime minister, in turn, wanted the security advice in the public domain.
“These things are important now to put clearly on the record, and I believe help voters in Germany and France understand that some of this politics is instigated via our enemies, namely Russia,” he said.
“I think we’ve been too much on the back foot on that actually, and we haven’t informed people sufficiently about the extent to which people are seeking to disrupt the political process from overseas.”
It is hardly new to talk about Russian interference in the 2016 referendum. Parliamentary committees looked into the problem and journalists investigated the “bot farms” run by allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It is new, however, for the prime minister to name the Russian state as the source of foreign interference in the fraught 2016 vote.
This is an elemental issue in British political circles, where every participant is known and labelled as either a member of the Leave or Remain camps. Merely having a discussion about whether Brexit was a good idea or not can send some observers into conniptions.
“Brexit has done more harm than good,” Burnham told voters in a speech last month. That drew a total rejection from the Conservative Party, which does not want a new referendum. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, made his name as a key advocate for Brexit and insists it was the right thing to do, but he blames the Conservatives for doing it badly.
Several economic reports say Brexit failed to deliver the growth boost the Conservative government claimed. The Remain camp dismiss the findings. The polarised debate also shapes the argument about migration, because the split with Europe has made it more challenging to send asylum seekers back across the English Channel.
Boris Johnson, who argued for Brexit and became prime minister three years after the vote, reacted within hours of Burnham’s new comments. “This is just not true,” he said on Monday. Johnson said security officials told him there was no evidence of successful interference in the referendum when he asked upon becoming foreign secretary soon after the vote.
Other members of the Leave campaign fulminated online about Burnham’s remarks. Farage called the prime minister a liar and denied there was any Russian interference.
Labour ministers chose to tread carefully. They had to be careful not to blame voters for being duped by Moscow, so they said that they did not believe the Russian influence had been successful. This line was repeated by Burnham’s office, and then by the prime minister himself in parliament.
When Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the prime minister had implied the referendum result was illegitimate, Burnham denied this outright. A spokesperson for No. 10 Downing Street made sure the media got this message, saying: “We believe the referendum result was legitimate.”
This is a tricky dance around the facts. How can anyone measure the impact of a foreign interference campaign? Brexit was decided by a margin of 3.8 per cent of the votes cast. Turnout was 72.2 per cent. There is no reliable way to prove whether the foreign influence was effective or not.
What comes next? Burnham will meet EU leaders next month for another negotiation on the Brexit terms. He promises a deal to lift growth and help manage migration, without needing another referendum.
“I am not reopening the referendum. I respect the referendum result,” he told parliament.
While Burnham may be able to negotiate a successful deal, the idea of a new referendum is unlikely to evaporate as the nation changes. Polling firm YouGov issued findings last Thursday that said 52 per cent would vote to rejoin the EU – a reversal of the result a decade ago.
YouGov also found that 22 per cent of those who voted to leave a decade ago would now vote to rejoin. Some voters are clearly suffering some “regrexit” over the nation’s fortunes.
In naming Russia as a culprit, Burnham may be able to slyly discredit the referendum outcome and build more support for his stance on Europe. But he will not be doing this alone.
Putin will be helping with every new instance of Russian interference, sabotage or hybrid warfare in Europe. Every threat will prove the case for greater unity among European democracies.
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