Can Kimi Antonelli clinch the F1 2026 title in Austin?

Max Verstappen has mounted another second-half comeback, much like in 2025. In his last 10 races, he has suffered two DNFs, won back-to-back races in Malaysia and Singapore, and collected six podiums.

But despite his recent form, the championship remains a long way out of his reach as Kimi Antonelli closes in on the title.Formula 1 has reached the stage of the season where the title fight is no longer just about race results. The points table is beginning to tell its own story, and Antonelli has a sizeable advantage over the chasing pack.The Mercedes youngster finished third at the Singapore Grand Prix, where Verstappen took victory.

George Russell could manage only ninth after starting from the back because of an engine penalty, allowing Antonelli to extend his championship lead to 102 points.Antonelli now has 340 points, Russell is on 238, Lewis Hamilton has 229, Verstappen sits on 221, Charles Leclerc has 215, and Lando Norris is on 201. Six races remain, with a maximum of 150 points still available. All six are mathematically in contention, but the task facing Antonelli's rivals is becoming increasingly difficult.

The next stop is Austin, Texas, from October 23 to 25. Antonelli has an opportunity to become the youngest Formula 1 world champion in history, although the title cannot be decided by his result alone. The other contenders' finishes will also determine whether the championship remains open.

1. Kimi Antonelli: One win away from history?

Current points: 340 | Championship lead: 102 pointsIf Antonelli wins in Austin, he will move to 365 points. For the title to be decided that weekend, Russell must finish ninth or lower, while Hamilton must finish fifth or lower.

Verstappen's result will also be crucial.If Russell finishes ninth, he will move to 240 points, leaving him 125 behind Antonelli with only 125 points available after Austin. Antonelli would retain the advantage on countback because he has already won more races.If Hamilton finishes fifth, he will reach 239 points, putting him 126 behind Antonelli and beyond reach with five rounds remaining.

2. George Russell: The closest challenger

Current points: 238 | Gap to Antonelli: 102 pointsAntonelli's Mercedes teammate Russell remains his closest challenger, but the gap has now stretched to more than four race wins.

He has 238 points and can collect a maximum of 150 more across the final six Grands Prix.If Russell wins every remaining race, he would finish on 388 points. Even then, the title would not be guaranteed. Antonelli would need to score no more than 47 points across those six races for Russell to finish ahead.

3. Lewis Hamilton: Ferrari needs a huge turnaround

Current points: 229 | Gap to Antonelli: 111 pointsSeven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton has 229 points, 111 behind Antonelli.

He can reach a maximum of 379 points if he wins all six remaining Grands Prix.For Hamilton to finish ahead, Antonelli would need to score no more than 38 points over the same period. Austin is particularly important. If Antonelli wins, Hamilton must finish fourth or better to keep his title hopes mathematically alive. A fifth-place finish or lower would leave him too far behind with five races remaining.

4. Max Verstappen: The Singapore winner needs another charge

Current points: 221 | Gap to Antonelli: 119 pointsVerstappen will arrive in Austin after back-to-back victories in Malaysia and Singapore.

The Red Bull driver has shown he can put together a late-season winning run, but he remains 119 points behind Antonelli despite his recent results.Verstappen can reach 371 points if he wins every remaining Grand Prix. To finish ahead of Antonelli, he needs to gain at least 120 points on the championship leader over the final six rounds. Even if Verstappen wins all six, Antonelli can score no more than 30 points during that period for the Red Bull driver to finish ahead.

Leclerc and Norris face an uphill battle

Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris also face a steep climb. Leclerc has 215 points, while Norris is sixth with 201. Leclerc can reach 365 points by winning every remaining race, while Norris can finish on a maximum of 351. Both need a major swing in results, with Antonelli dropping points while they produce near-perfect finishes.

If Antonelli wins in Austin, Leclerc and Norris will be eliminated from championship contention, provided the other results leave the Italian beyond their reach.

Can Antonelli seal the title in Austin?

Antonelli's 102-point lead gives him a strong chance of wrapping up the championship early, but the outcome in Austin depends on the results of his closest rivals.He needs to win, Russell must finish ninth or lower, and Hamilton must finish fifth or lower. Verstappen must also fail to win for Antonelli to clinch the title that weekend.If those results fall into place, Antonelli will become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history. Otherwise, the championship fight will continue into the remaining five rounds.