The defection of prominent former allies of ex-Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is testing the opposition’s grassroots strength ahead of the February 6, 2027 governorship election, as Governor Uba Sani raises his party’s vote target to three million.
The political significance of the realignment, however, remains uncertain, with claims that more than 200,000 ADC members and supporters have joined the APC yet to be independently verified. The key question is whether the defectors can convert their political networks into additional votes or whether the movement will amount largely to a reshuffling of party loyalties.
Sani announced the increased vote target on October 17 in Zaria while receiving Muhammad Bashir Sa’idu, a former chief of staff and commissioner for finance under El-Rufai; Jafaru Sani, a former commissioner for education; former senator Suleiman Abdu Kwari; and other political associates.
Sa’idu claimed that more than 200,000 ADC members and supporters had moved to the APC through his political group, Kaduna De-Initiatives. According to him, about 100,000 card-carrying members had defected by September, with more than 100,000 additional supporters joining subsequently.
However, the reports reviewed did not provide documentary evidence establishing the total number of defectors, their distribution across Kaduna’s 23 local government areas or how many are registered voters. The figure therefore remains a claim by the defection group, rather than a verified measure of the APC’s expanded electoral support.
The distinction matters in a state where the 2023 governorship election was decided by a margin of just 10,806 votes. Sani, the APC candidate, secured 730,002 votes against 719,196 for Isa Ashiru, who contested on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The Supreme Court subsequently affirmed Sani’s election.
Although the result offers a benchmark for the competitiveness of the race, it does not predict the outcome of the 2027 election, which will take place under a different political configuration.
Sani said the APC had raised its vote target from two million to three million following the return of the former El-Rufai associates and their supporters. He also cited 4.6 million registered voters in Kaduna State and claimed that 96 per cent had collected their permanent voter cards. These figures require verification against official electoral records.
Reaching the three-million-vote target would require substantial mobilisation across the state’s three senatorial districts and 23 local government areas. The party would also need to translate its political alliances into votes cast on election day, rather than rely on the number of defectors announced at political receptions.
Sa’idu attributed his group’s decision to return to the APC partly to disagreements over the ADC’s leadership and candidate-selection process. He alleged that some individuals had taken control of the opposition party and said his group had compared the candidates of both parties before deciding to defect. These allegations have not been independently established.
The movement also highlights the changing political relationship between Sani and his predecessor. El-Rufai, who governed Kaduna from 2015 to 2023, has moved from the APC to the ADC and become associated with the opposition’s political efforts ahead of the next election. The departure of some former associates from the ADC to the APC adds another dimension to the contest over political networks and voter mobilisation.
For the APC, substantiating the reported defections would help establish the scale of its gains. Membership records, a breakdown by local government area and ward, and evidence of how the figures were compiled would help distinguish registered party members from informal supporters. Establishing how many of those involved are registered voters would provide a clearer indication of the potential electoral value of the movement.
The ADC, meanwhile, faces the challenge of retaining its existing supporters and demonstrating that its grassroots organisation remains intact despite the departure of prominent figures associated with its political network.
Ashiru emerged as the ADC’s governorship candidate after its May primary, securing 86,113 votes, according to published reports. Jafaru Sani, who later defected to the APC, was among the aspirants.
The party has also faced disagreements over its nomination process. In October, supporters of another aspirant, Shuaibu Idris Mikati, challenged the issuance of Ashiru’s certificate of return, arguing that disputes surrounding the primary remained unresolved. The position was reported in a statement by the coalition supporting Mikati.
In July, Ashiru held a reconciliation meeting with rival factions in an effort to strengthen unity within the ADC’s Kaduna chapter. However, the extent to which the reconciliation has strengthened the party’s ward structures and improved its capacity for statewide mobilisation remains unclear.
A direct response from Ashiru or an authorised ADC spokesperson would be necessary to establish how the party assesses the impact of the defections and what steps it is taking to retain ward executives, members and supporters. No such response is reflected in the information available for this report.
Evidence from ward organisers across Kaduna North, Kaduna Central and Kaduna South would also help determine whether the defections have triggered changes in local party leadership, reduced membership or disrupted campaign activities. Interviews with independent voters in the three senatorial districts would offer further insight into whether the realignment is influencing voter preferences, although individual views should not be treated as representative of entire communities.
Beyond party defections, security, employment, agriculture, infrastructure and the cost of living are likely to remain important issues for both campaigns. Farmers’ access to land and markets, operating costs for businesses, and households’ access to education and healthcare offer practical measures by which voters can assess the incumbent administration and the opposition.
The APC will need to demonstrate how its record in government has addressed these concerns and outline what further measures it intends to pursue if re-elected. The ADC, in turn, will need to explain how its proposed policies would address outstanding challenges and how its programmes would be financed and implemented.
The immediate task for the APC is to substantiate the scale of the defections, integrate the newcomers into its party structure and demonstrate how their networks will support voter mobilisation. For the ADC, the challenge is to manage internal disagreements, retain its grassroots organisation and convince voters that it remains capable of mounting a competitive statewide campaign.
Ultimately, the electoral value of the defections will depend not on the number of politicians announcing a change of party, but on whether they can demonstrate that they have brought additional voters with them—and whether those voters turn out on election day.
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