Tensions in the Middle East are rising again as the United States and Israel prepare to resume large-scale military strikes on Iran. Israel pushed for airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure earlier this month but did not carry them out because of opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump, according to reports. The U.S. is also weighing a separate concentrated bombing campaign, raising concerns that military conflict could widen after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections. The KOSPI extended intraday losses, weighed down in part by the instability in the Middle East.
The New York Times and other major foreign media reported on the 21st, citing sources, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military earlier this month to prepare large-scale airstrikes against Iran.
The Israeli military had initially planned strikes lasting several days around the 10th, according to the reports. Targets included not only Iranian nuclear and regime-linked facilities but also civilian infrastructure such as power plants. The scale of the attack was expected to exceed the military operation the U.S. and Israel conducted against Iran in February.
The plan was shelved, however, after Trump objected to escalating the war with Iran again before the midterm elections. It is unclear whether the U.S. had planned to join the operation alongside Israel.
Trump said on the 8th on his social media platform Truth Social that his administration was holding productive discussions with Iran and that it would not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Analysts attribute the U.S. decision to rein in Israel's planned attack to domestic politics ahead of the midterms. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen because of the war with Iran that began in February, and public fatigue over the prolonged military conflict has become a burden for the Trump administration and the Republican Party.
Reuters reported on the 8th that about 60% of Americans gave Trump negative marks for his handling of the Iran issue in opinion polls. With the cost of living emerging as a top concern for voters, a renewed escalation of the war with Iran could affect the elections.
That does not mean the U.S. has abandoned its military options. According to the Times, the Defense Department recently drew up a plan to carry out concentrated strikes over roughly three days on key targets including Iran's missile and drone forces and energy facilities. The U.S. government has reviewed plans for large-scale military operations against Iran or the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen several times in recent months, but Trump has not approved them. Military preparations are continuing, however, in case of further attacks on Iran.
High-level security consultations between the U.S. and Israel are also continuing. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently visited Israel and discussed security threats in the Middle East with Netanyahu. Israel is also preparing to resume military operations, including by selecting new targets. The Financial Times reported that Israel had considered civilian infrastructure that was not included in previous airstrikes as new targets, adding that neither a specific timing for an attack nor U.S. participation had been confirmed as decided.
Diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have yet to produce a clear breakthrough. The two sides have exchanged proposals on ending the war and normalizing maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but they have failed to narrow differences on core issues such as uranium enrichment and the lifting of sanctions.
Elections in Israel and the U.S. are expected to be the next turning point for military tensions. Israel holds a general election on the 27th, and the U.S. votes in midterm elections on Nov. 3. Netanyahu has stressed the need for a hard-line response to Iran's nuclear development ahead of the vote, while Trump has been cautious about an immediate expansion of the war.
The KOSPI was down more than 3% as of 1 p.m., pressured by instability in the Middle East and debate over the profitability of artificial intelligence.