The spectre of far-right leader Marine Le Pen winning France’s presidency with a pledge to go head-to-head with the European Union is already giving Brussels the jitters -- and looming large over Emmanuel Macron’s final months in power.
France heads to the polls in April and May, after which Macron will exit as he can only serve two terms as president of the EU’s second-largest economy.
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But as Macron met his EU counterparts for a Brussels summit, a European diplomat said Le Pen was already “in the room” -- with the frontrunner’s potential victory hanging over their talks Thursday and Friday on future spending and Ukraine.
Seeking to tighten the screws on the EU, Le Pen travelled to the Belgian capital on the eve of the leaders’ meeting to address the media, vowing to slash France’s contribution to the European Union budget and to cut short financial support to Ukraine.
European officials do not hide their concerns that Le Pen is trying to exert influence over EU affairs months before the vote.
“It was very cunning of her to hold her press conference” the day before, said a second European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The National Rally leader also spoke at length to the Financial Times newspaper, read by policymakers in Brussels, warning of a potential showdown over the EU budget and difficult times for EU chief Ursula von der Leyen if she wins.
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The interview was “quite scary” especially on Ukraine, said Francesco Nicoli, politics professor at Italy’s Polytechnic University of Turin.
A senior European official admitted Brussels could barely imagine what the EU would look like with a French far-right government -- with no known formal contacts between Le Pen and the EU executive to date.
- ‘Possible storm’ -
For Macron, fears of a disruptive Le Pen presidency have sharpened focus on what he may yet achieve at EU level in his final few months in power.
The fervent European who has spent nine years pushing deeper EU integration maintains influence over his counterparts in Brussels, diplomats say, despite a pileup of crises at home from student protests to French debt turmoil.
“What is certain is that in Brussels there is the will to make the most of the fact he is still there, and to lock in whatever can be before a possible storm,” said Sebastien Maillard, of the Jacques Delors Institute.
Observers note that no other current EU leader has managed to take on a leadership role in the bloc, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz weaker than ever after the strongest far-right win in Germany since 1945.
“Macron understands what is happening around the (leaders’) table. He’s a very skilled negotiator and much more agile than Merz,” the first EU diplomat said.
EU watchers say Macron will need all his savvy to prevail in the fraught negotiations over the budget between the so-called “frugals” led by Berlin and capitals like Paris seeking a more ambitious budget.
Maillard said the French president had “acquired an international reputation” which could “to a certain extent, protect him from France’s domestic difficulties”.
The expert pointed to Macron’s influence over talks on Christine Lagarde’s successor as head of the European Central Bank and the EU budget talks.
Not everyone is convinced.
“On foreign and security policy, Macron is in a strong position right now. On economic issues he’s weak,” academic Nicoli said.
The French leader himself, perhaps wanting to avoid Le Pen further overshadowing his summit talks, did not take any questions from journalists in Brussels Thursday.
“I think that’s why Macron is keeping a low profile. He doesn’t want to respond,” a diplomatic source said.