The diesel agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will add little Russian diesel to the global market and earn Moscow only "small fry", Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argued in a commentary for Carnegie Politika published on October 13.
Under the deal, Russia is to export 300,000 tonnes of diesel in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1mn tonnes a month after that through April 2027. The US Treasury licence authorises specified transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027. "Without a ceasefire with Ukraine on attacking each other's energy infrastructure - to which the Kremlin is unlikely to agree - the diesel agreement between Putin and Trump is largely for show," Vakulenko wrote.
Russia's exportable surplus has collapsed under Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries, from about 3mn tonnes a month in April to around 325,000 tonnes in September, he noted. Before the war and as recently as 2025, Russia exported around 40mn tonnes a year, about 3% of global consumption and almost 10% of internationally traded diesel, second only to the US.
Moscow banned diesel exports outside Central Asia and Mongolia in July, but tanker-loading data show that 1.6-1.8mn tonnes were still shipped by sea in the months since, possibly under other customs codes, Vakulenko wrote. The simplest way for Russia to meet its commitment is to formalise those flows, which would cover even November's 500,000 tonnes without taking fuel from the domestic market. Winter demand in Russia can be 25% below its September level, freeing up as much as 1mn tonnes a month. The government partially lifted the ban on October 10.
Trump's motive is pump prices ahead of the November 3 midterms, not a shortage, Vakulenko argued. The US is the world's biggest diesel exporter, and its refiners are enjoying a boom, with diesel selling at twice the price of crude against a usual premium of 20-30%. But 300,000 tonnes a month is too little to move a global market of 120mn tonnes a month, 30mn tonnes of which is traded internationally, and traders have already priced in Russian volumes.
"The most reliable and radical way to get new volumes of diesel onto the global market is to resolve the issue around the Strait of Hormuz," Vakulenko wrote. Unable to secure a quick victory over Iran, Trump "has turned his attention back to another war: that between Russia and Ukraine." Only a halt to Ukraine's refinery strikes, which would let Russian refining recover to 5.5mn barrels a day from 3.8mn-4mn b/d, would change the picture, and Kyiv is unlikely to give up one of its few levers over Moscow.
On paper the deal is worth about $7bn for some 5mn tonnes over six months, about half of Russia's oil and oil-product export earnings in August, but counting that would be double-counting diesel that would have been sold anyway. Russia's real gain is a smaller sanctions discount and cheaper shipping now that it is no longer confined to its shadow fleet, Vakulenko estimated, worth $30-40 a tonne at best, or "tens of millions of dollars per month", and that money goes to oil companies rather than the budget.
The budget could even gain from cheaper diesel, he argued. Because the state does not tax higher export prices for refined products, as it does crude through the mineral extraction tax, expensive fuel abroad only raises what the government pays oil companies under the damper mechanism to keep domestic prices regulated.