Rivers 2027: Can Fubara save Wike, his nemesis?

Not a few observers of the politics of Rivers State are keenly following the recent turn in the course of developments, whereby a fresh angle that features a reproachment of hitherto warring camps has thrown up the question of where the political future of the state is headed. This is just as the question also looms over whether the ongoing moves can guarantee genuine peace in the state after the storms spawned in the course of the power tussle between Nyesom Wike, the Minster of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the governor of the state, Siminalayi Fubara. It needs to be recalled that all through the years-long crisis, Wike had openly relished his disturbing role as an unforgiving nemesis to Fubara. 

Yet, last Sunday, Wike led a team of his Rainbow Coalition to the private residence of Fubara for a reported formal reconciliation meeting with the latter’s Simplified Movement camp. While details of the terms of reconciliation are yet to be fully made public, certain gestures by the Wike camp point to a softening of positions by both camps.

One of such gestures was the lifting of the suspension of three of Fubara’s loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA), who were suspended from sitting by the Speaker Martins Amaewhule-led chamber at the peak of the crisis. Mention of other outstanding issues like the recent proxy war against Pamo University of Medical Sciences on behalf of Wike by the RSHA, are still expected. On the flip side is the obvious condition that Fubara may have aligned fully with the Rainbow Coalition in order for the two camps to work together for the re-election of Bola Tinubu as president come 2027.

 An obvious impetus for this realignment is the intended visit to Rivers State by President Ahmed Bola Tinubu on Tuesday, October 27, 2026; hence, against the backdrop of Wike’s serial claims of having Rivers State votes in his pocket, a formal reconciliation with Fubara remains a starting point.  

Incidentally, this newly sought harmony between these two warring camps is coming against a backdrop of a groundswell of resentments by not a few members of the Simplified Movement, as well as other persons in Rivers State, over the history of Wike’s assaults on Fubara, which manifested in several forms aimed at emasculation of the latter by the former, with the active connivance of and support by President Tinubu. 

Among the various instances in Wike’s ‘Bring Fubara Down’ agenda were the various threats of impeachment by the Wike-controlled Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA), the hijack of the state’s local government structure, with the ultimate salvos being the contentious six months suspension by Tinubu of the governor, deputy governor and the RSHA between March and August 2025, as well as the denial of Fubara of the opportunity of seeking a second term in office. 

It is against the backdrop of the foregoing that not a few see the new search for reconciliation with Fubara by Wike as rubbing salt into the former’s injury. It is like flogging a child unjustly as well as mercilessly and asking him or her not to cry.  

In the light of the prevailing circumstances of joint commitment by the two camps to the re-election of Tinubu lies the question of how much goodwill actually exists between them to ensure a harmonious working relationship.

Given the serial setbacks for Fubara’s camp, courtesy of Wike’s megalomanic proclivities, with what confidence can members of the Fubara camp deal with the former’s camp in the context of Nigerian politics, where political betrayals are never fully forgiven? And ultimately, beyond the objective of securing a Tinubu re-election, what other interests can the two camps share? 

This is where the calculus of 2027 polls in Rivers State goes beyond the Tinubu reelection matter and rather redirects to who gets what when the chips are down. For one, whereas Tinubu’s reelection may need the Wike factor, the president can still win or lose without him, depending on the course of developments during the forthcoming polls.

Interestingly, not a few observers see the spirited enterprise of Wike in respect of pursuing the reelection of Tinubu as bordering on the overkill and can only be justified by the notion that he may have some personal advantage beyond Tinubu to secure. Not a few actually point to Wike’s earlier gambit to aspire for the Nigerian presidency as an alibi for the overkill agenda for Tinubu’s re-election bid as he could as well be feathering his own nest, just in case the opportunity to run for presidency comes up in future. In such a situation, the Rainbow Coalition loses every strand of altruistic value and remains simply Wike’s opportunistic plan to climb to national prominence on the back of Tinubu.

As the African proverb says, “If a toad is running around in the day, it is either chasing something or something is chasing it.” This explains why Wike would suddenly reverse himself to seek reproachment with Fubara after discomfiting the latter as his nemesis. And the obvious reason is to impress Tinubu of his capacity to deliver Rivers State votes and boost his ranking in the president’s eye. 

Incidentally, this angle constitutes the most demeaning treatment of Rivers State voters by Wike as all they matter to him is as mere electoral statistics. This is just as Fubara and his Simplified Camp constitute nothing more than mere pawns on Wike’s chess board, and with with all these at the pleasure of President Bola Tinubu.

In the final analysis, the question facing Fubara and his Simplified Movement camp is to what extent they should save Wike’s agenda, knowing full well the scant positive dividends from such enterprise.