Lorne Gunter: Alberta separatism as unpopular as Justin Trudeau

Make of this what you will: In Monday’s unity referendum the separatist option received an almost identical share of the popular vote in Alberta as Justin Trudeau did the first time he won election in 2015.

Trudeau won 24.6% of Alberta votes, the separatists (as of noon on Tuesday) had 24.5%.

I think it says something about the separatist movement if it is only as popular in the province as the much-hated Justin Trudeau.

And don’t even dream of comparing separatist support to support for the Carney Liberals in Alberta. They’re close to 33%.

The simple fact is the separatists got trounced in Monday’s vote.

That should keep them quiet for a while, but they have already promised it won’t.

They still intend to take over the annual convention of the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) at the end of November and maybe, just maybe force a leadership review on Premier Danielle Smith, who prominent separatist Jeffery Rath denounced as an “avowed federalist.”

Smith won 91.5 per cent support for her leadership at the UCP convention in 2024. But she won’t give the separatists everything they want, so they are intent on making her political life a living hell.

Many of the highest-ranking separatists were also among those who organized the leadership review that drove former premier Jason Kenney from office in 2022. These same people now seem intent on knifing their second UCP leader in four years.

No one will ever be good enough for them until a leader is chosen who is an avowed separatist.

So why not form their own party? The leader would, by definition, have to be a separatist.

I think the simple answer is that would be too much like work. And it would take too long.

They want what they want now and in one easy step.

They should really do what Quebec separatists did, set up own their party, elect a leader, raise money, identify and nominate candidates, run those candidates for seats in the legislature and, if they can, elect MLAs and form a government.

But that’s hard work. It requires patience. Alberta separatists would rather someone else (Smith) do the heavy lifting. They were hoping a referendum win would force Smith to become the chief negotiator for an independent Alberta, regardless of her own personal, federalist views. Now that they’ve lost, rather than roll up their sleeves and start the difficult task of setting up their own party and winning election, they’re going to keep throwing tantrums until they coerce Smith into giving into their demands.

They’re armchair quarterbacks, sideline snipers. Don’t ask them to dig in and do the dirty work.

There are some pockets of separatist support in the province, mostly in rural areas. An independence party could build a base there and slowly grow a broader coalition.

But they would also have to stay away from Trump’s MAGA movement, which many of them admire, and stop offering to sell out Alberta oil and freshwater resources.

There were nine other questions on Monday’s ballot, most of which received only one-half to two-thirds has many votes as the separatism question. Lots of voters just weren’t strongly interested in the five policy questions and four constitutional ones.

But all nine passed, except the one calling on Alberta to withdraw from federal programs with full monetary compensation, the way Quebec has for decades.

Voters supported the idea of making people who are neither citizens not permanent residents wait out a year before being eligible for health, education and social services. They also favoured voters being compelled to prove they were citizens before being allowed to vote in provincial elections. (Next to the vote to remain in Canada, that question got the highest support, 63.6 per cent to 36.4 per cent.)

The lopsided results of the separatism vote should allow Albertans to put the issue behind them and get on with their lives. But I’m afraid that won’t happen.

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