President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said they don’t want to see a renewal of the war against Iran – but they are issuing stark public warnings to Tehran that could bring the simmering conflict to a boil.
Trump endorsed Netanyahu for Prime Minister on Sunday, explaining that his leadership was critical to any renewed Iran campaign.
A third US aircraft carrier is expected to arrive in the Middle East soon, amid signs that Washington is preparing for a possible resumption of hostilities, even though Israel’s Oct. 27 election and the American midterms on Nov. 3 are looming.
In multiple interviews, including with Channel 14, Netanyahu stressed that, “If Iran makes a mistake and tries to attack us, it will simply make the mistake of its life.” But he added, “It’s not convenient for us” for war to resume weeks before a national election in a country with no absentee voting.
Trump, for his part, told reporters in Atlanta last week, “Wait til you see what we do to Iran.”
Iran's Strait of Hormuz disruptions, rising oil prices fuel tensions
Israeli experts have warned that renewed conflict is only a matter of time as an uneasy standoff has continued, with Iran disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from where 20% of the world’s oil flows. At the same time, the US is maintaining its economic pressure on Tehran.
High oil prices have risen 46% to $104 per barrel since the Feb. 28 attacks, pushing gasoline prices up 46% to $4.36 per gallon. That increase could give Trump another incentive for another strike, which would renew the war that was paused in April.
“Without a diplomatic settlement, the chances of escalation are very high,” Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told JTA.
Trump has been unable to achieve a diplomatic agreement. Both Tehran and Washington believe they won the two-month war earlier this year. In practice, however, the Islamic regime is still in power with the capacity to recoup its nuclear and ballistic missile losses and continues to exert some control in the Strait. All of which makes it difficult for Israel and the US to show that they won.
“Trump cannot declare victory now, but he also cannot leave without doing something,” said Citrinowicz, who was also the former head of the Iran branch in the Israeli military intelligence directorate’s Research and Analysis Division. “On the other hand, the Iranians cannot allow the naval blockade to continue, so they will keep attacking tankers.”
Former Israeli security official expects Trump to hold off on Iran strikes until after midterms
Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official and an expert on Iran, said “Trump has said he won’t attack before the midterm elections, and I think he has good reasons to hold off.”
He stressed, however, that the risk of escalation certainly exists. “We’re in a situation where both sides continue to exert pressure on each other, without any lasting agreement in place,” he said. “Everyone is on edge, and all it would take is one significant incident to send things spiraling out of control.”
Gil Murciano, CEO of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, said the unpopularity of the war with Iran among the American public makes a US-initiated escalation before the midterm elections less likely. A Pew Research Center poll released last week found that 64% of Americans disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling US military action against Iran.
A poll conducted by the Institute for National Security Studies last month found that Israelis are divided over whether Israel should launch a preemptive strike on Iran, with opponents slightly outnumbering supporters.
Trump administration reportedly weighs limited strikes on Iran ahead of midterms
The New York Times reported that officials in the Trump administration had discussed a short, intense campaign lasting about three days, focused on Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, potentially alongside strikes on energy infrastructure and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters.
The Atlantic reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be carried out ahead of the midterm elections.
“A three-day campaign that would, for example, include a strike on Pickaxe Mount would allow Trump to say that he had obliterated Iran’s nuclear project, won the war and was ending the conflict,” Citrinowicz said. “That is one option. Another is to strike Iranian infrastructure facilities.” He cautioned, however, that even a planned three-day campaign