Abu Dhabi: The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast higher-than-average temperatures and rainfall across the UAE from November 2026 to March 2027, with a 96% probability of El Niño continuing and the possibility of strong weather conditions, particularly towards the end of the period, if suitable climatic conditions develop.
In its seasonal forecast report on the effects of El Niño and La Niña, the NCM said current climate indicators in the Pacific Ocean point to significant El Niño activity continuing until February, with its effects expected to extend to the UAE until April 2027.
The centre said climate models indicate that the phenomenon will peak during October and November 2026, with sea surface temperatures expected to rise by around 3 degrees Celsius above the reference average, indicating a very strong El Niño event.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical regions of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were higher than usual during September, the centre added.
The NCM explained that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic change in the ocean-atmosphere system over the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the world. The El Niño 3.4 region is one of the key areas used to measure the phenomenon and monitor its climatic effects.
The centre reiterated that seasonal forecasts for November 2026 to March 2027 indicate above-average temperatures and rainfall, with the possibility of strong weather events, particularly during the latter part of the period, if suitable weather conditions develop.