Trinidad Budget Debate Turns on 2.2% Decline

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO · ECONOMY

Opposition MP Colm Imbert told the Trinidad budget debate that the economy is in recession and may crash within months. The Trinidad Express reported his remarks on Sunday 18 October 2026, six days after the budget was presented on Monday 12 October.

For US readers, the dispute matters because Trinidad and Tobago is a Caribbean gas, LNG and petrochemical producer. Its budget sets the tax, spending and borrowing climate for energy investors, creditors and visitors.

Imbert belongs to the People’s National Movement (PNM), which is now in opposition. The Government is led by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar of the United National Congress (UNC).

What Happened in the Trinidad Budget Debate

Tancoo presented the 2026-2027 budget on Monday 12 October 2026. It projects spending of TT$63.368 billion (about US$9.4 billion) and revenue of TT$59.729 billion (about US$8.8 billion).

That leaves a fiscal 2027 deficit of TT$3.639 billion (about US$540 million), which the Ministry of Finance puts at 2.1% of GDP. The revised deficit for fiscal 2026 is TT$7 billion (about US$1.0 billion).

The budget assumes oil at US$77 a barrel and gas at US$5 per MMBtu, against US$73.25 and US$4.25 in 2026. Oil revenue is projected at TT$14.355 billion (about US$2.1 billion).

Imbert said he cannot support the package and repeated the Opposition Leader’s claim that the country is in recession. The Express quoted him calling the budget figures a “mirage”, “fictitious” and “nonsense”.

Opposition Leader Pennelope Beckles made the same recession claim in her budget reply in Parliament, which CNC3 reported on Friday 16 October. She also called for Tancoo to resign, accusing him of giving the International Monetary Fund (IMF) misleading information, and the Express report carried no reply from him.

What Imbert Claimed

Imbert said the country, “if it has not already crashed, will crash within the next couple of months”. That is a prediction, and the budget documents reviewed contain no such forecast.

He said growth in business lending fell from 11.4% in April 2025 to 0.6% in July 2026, citing Central Bank documents. The Ministry’s review points the same way, with business lending growth of 0.8% in June 2026 against 6.6% in October 2025.

He tied the slowdown to the closure of Nutrien and curtailments at Proman, two petrochemical producers. The Ministry’s review confirms a controlled Nutrien shutdown from October 2025 and a temporary suspension of Proman’s melamine plant from January 2026.

Imbert said the Government imposed at least 70 new taxes and fees between May 2025 and September 2026, including an asset levy on commercial banks and landlord registration fees. The count of 70 is his own and was not checked line by line, though the Budget Statement reports that the bank and insurance asset levy raised TT$397 million (about US$59 million).

He also argued that the Government still cannot balance the books despite what he called an energy windfall of TT$3 billion (about US$440 million). He said the deficit could have been TT$12 billion to TT$15 billion (about US$1.8 billion to US$2.2 billion) at the oil prices international agencies expected.

What the Government Documents Show

The Ministry of Finance’s Review of the Economy 2026 says the Central Statistical Office recorded a 0.5% fall in output in 2025. It projects a 2.2% decline in 2026, mainly from lower energy activity.

Real GDP fell 1.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, after a 1.2% fall in the fourth quarter of 2025. Unemployment rose to 5.4% in the first quarter from 4.3% in the previous quarter.

Natural gas output averaged about 2.44 billion standard cubic feet a day in the first eight months of fiscal 2026, 5.1% below a year earlier. The Budget Statement blames the former PNM administration for a 45% slide from the 2014 peak, including the permanent closure of Atlantic LNG Train 1.

The Budget Statement also reports headline inflation of 0.6% in July 2026 and net official reserves of US$5.4 billion, or 6.2 months of import cover. It says the Government borrowed more than TT$21 billion (about US$3.1 billion) in 18 months to refinance debt, with TT$70 billion (about US$10.3 billion) due over five years.

Imbert said the rise in reserves came from borrowing and withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund rather than export earnings. The Express report carried no response to that claim.

Is Trinidad and Tobago in a Recession?

Beckles used a rule of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The official readings of minus 1.2% and minus 1.8% fit that pattern, though they are year-on-year comparisons rather than quarter-on-quarter changes.

The IMF’s October 2026 regional outlook, which the Trinidad Guardian reported on Saturday 17 October, shows a 0.5% fall in 2025 but growth of 0.2% in 2026. That sits 2.4 percentage points above the Ministry’s own projection of a 2.2% decline for the same year.

Beckles said the IMF’s June report cited 0.8% growth for 2025, while the Ministry’s earlier review had projected a 0.8% contraction. That is her allegation, and no response from Tancoo was found.

Economist Marla Dukharan, based in Barbados, questioned whether the Government can halve its deficit in one year. She told the Trinidad Guardian that, if the numbers are correct, “this could constitute a shock to the economy”.

What It Means for US Readers

Energy and chemicals investors should watch gas output, which sits behind the Ministry’s forecast of a 2.2% decline. The Nutrien and Proman cuts show how supply limits reach exports and jobs.

Bond holders and lenders can use the TT$3.639 billion (about US$540 million) deficit target as a benchmark for later data. The Budget Statement says financial-market contacts and rating-agency reports show confidence that the Government will meet its obligations.

For background, our explainer Trinidad and Tobago Explained: Gas, Politics, the Two Islands and What to Watch covers the energy base. Our report Trinidad Cabinet Realignment Moves Housing Schemes covers the Government’s recent changes.

What Is Not Known

Imbert’s warning of a crash within months is a prediction, and no official source reviewed here supports or tests it. The Government’s reply to his speech was not found.

The parliamentary record of the Trinidad budget debate was not available, so Imbert’s words and figures come from the Trinidad Express. The IMF figures come from a press description rather than the IMF’s own text.

It is not known whether quarterly data after March 2026 show further falls. The next Central Statistical Office releases will show whether the contraction deepens or eases.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Colm Imbert say about the Trinidad economy?

He said the economy is in recession and will crash within the next couple of months if it has not already. The Trinidad Express reported the remarks on Sunday 18 October 2026.

Who is Colm Imbert?

He is an Opposition MP and a former finance minister from the People’s National Movement. He criticised the budget that Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo presented on 12 October.

What does the 2027 budget project?

It projects spending of TT$63.368 billion (about US$9.4 billion) and revenue of TT$59.729 billion (about US$8.8 billion). The deficit is TT$3.639 billion (about US$540 million).

Is Trinidad and Tobago in a recession?

The Ministry of Finance projects a 2.2% fall in output in 2026 after 0.5% in 2025, while the IMF outlook shows 0.2% growth. The two official views differ, so the label remains disputed.

What does it mean for US readers?

It shapes the outlook for investors and creditors tied to a Caribbean gas producer. Official data on gas output and quarterly GDP are the best guide.

Sources: Trinidad Express, 18 October 2026; Trinidad Express, 17 October 2026; CNC3, 16 October 2026; Ministry of Finance, Budget Statement 2027, 12 October 2026; Ministry of Finance, Review of the Economy 2026; Trinidad Guardian, IMF outlook report; economists on budget projections.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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