2025 policing trend: Fewer serious crimes, more minor arrests

Arrests for low-level crimes, including vagrancy and drug possession, rose in the U.S. from 2024 to 2025 even as rates of violent crime including homicide plummeted to historic national lows, according to a new analysis of federal data from the criminal justice and immigration reforms advocacy group FWD.us.

Zoë Towns, the executive director of FWD.us, spoke to NPR ahead of the report's release on Wednesday.

"This increase signals a really troubling return to some of the extreme law and order policies that defined the American criminal justice system during the 80s and the 90s," Towns said, referring to the era's tough-on-crime policies, including mandatory minimum prison sentences, that led to a massive rise in incarceration in the U.S. for decades.

The report analyzes publicly available FBI and immigration arrest data and does not include details of whether charges were dropped or if people served any time in jail or prison.

Still, Towns said, "An arrest has life-changing consequences for the person involved and for their family. It can mean days or months in jail. It can mean a lost job. It can mean missed rent or a missed mortgage payment," and can mean families separated, she said.

A representative for the FBI didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on this analysis.

The findings

Four states, California, Hawaii, Nevada and Arizona, accounted for over half the increase in vagrancy arrests, according to the report. The legal definition of vagrancy is "roaming from place to place without a permanent job, home, or material resources." In practice, it is disproportionately enforced against people experiencing homelessness.

FWD.us found arrests for vagrancy were up 44% (22,769 in 2024 to 32,728 in 2025).

Two demographic groups made up the majority of arrests: Asian Americans, as well as Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders. Although AANHPI people make up only about 7% of the US population, they accounted for 17% of the increase in vagrancy arrests, largely in Hawaii, according to FWD.us

Marijuana possession arrests went up 6%, mainly in Southern states that have not yet legalized the drug. The report showed there were 190,182 arrests in 2024 and 201,273 a year later.

There was a stark racial disparity between those arrested for marijuana possession: Black people accounted for 83% of the national increase in marijuana arrests in 2025 and nearly half of all cannabis arrests were of Black people (45%).

Arrests for possession of drugs other than marijuana rose marginally between 2024 to 2025. The report found a national increase of 3% in arrests or 508,087 in 2024 and 523,520 in 2025.

This increase appears to be tied to the unraveling of policies that decriminalized drug possession in some states.

Voters in California (which saw the biggest jump in arrests for drug possession) back in 2024 voted to roll back a measure that had reclassified drug possession from a felony to a misdemeanor. Proposition 36, approved by voters, increased criminal penalties for repeat thieves and drug users. FWD.us says drug possession arrests rose by over 14,000 in a single year following its passage.

That same year Oregon similarly reinstated a policy that made simple drug possession a criminal offense again. That resulted in a 39% increase (2,205) in non-marijuana drug possession arrests.

The report also highlights the vast increase (188%) in arrests for immigration violations in that time — a trend NPR has previously covered. In 2024, there were a reported 109,936 immigration violation arrests. A year later, in 2025, those arrests totaled 316,304.

Why is this happening now?

FWD.us ties the increases, in part, to changes at the federal level.

The data reviewed by FWD.us covers the first full year of President Trump's second term in office. In that time the administration leaned on a tough-on-crime message.

It supercharged its deportation efforts, arresting hundreds of thousands nationwide — many of whom had no criminal convictions. Millions of federal dollars have also been sent to local police through the 287(g) program, which allows local police to make immigration arrests.

FWD believes federal deployments of immigration officers and the National Guard may have also led to increased policing and subsequently more arrests.

In summer 2025, Trump claimed American cities including Washington, D.C., were suffering from a "crime emergency" — despite data showing violent crime in the city were at a record low in 2024. He sent hundreds of National Guard troops to the city.

FWD.us found that arrests in D.C. for marijuana possession "more than doubled" following the Trump administration's deployment of National Guard into the city.

Vagrancy arrests may also be tied to actions by the Supreme Court, according to FWD's report. Two years ago, the judges ruled that cities can ban people from sleeping and camping in public places. The ruling allowed Oregon and dozens of other Western localities to limit where individuals living in cars, parks and other encampments stayed.

Insha Rahman, president and director of the criminal justice reform nonprofit Vera Institute, says there are still "incredibly positive trends" showing crime across the board is down.

Adult arrests for drug crimes peaked in 2006 at about 1.7 million, more than 2.5 times the number recorded in 1980.

And has continued a downward trend.

Rahman says this decrease "speaks to the resilience of states and localities that have continued to double down and invest in what works." Vera was not involved in the FWD.us report.

That includes investing in treatment and diversion programs that offer assistance to people struggling with addiction, community violence intervention programs, youth services, counseling and alternative response programs.