The Brewers defeated the Dodgers and upended the narrative supporting the salary cap going into the offseason. Will this actually impact CBA negotiations?
James Attwood: I don’t really see how. Sure, the Brewers are a smaller market than the Dodgers. They have a much smaller payroll. But, if anything, the Brewers advancing is only going to fuel the MLBPA to get even stickier about trying to control salaries in any way, shape, or form. Also, even though plenty of fans and pundits like to give MLB front offices a hard time about making stupid decisions, those offices are by and large, stacked with incredibly intelligent people. Those people are going to be able to take a step back and recognize that one season’s playoff picture is hardly a sample size large enough to be called indicative of the sport moving forward. There were questions after Arizona went to the World Series in 2023 about whether or not MLB had done enough to create obstacles for Wild Card teams in the playoffs, all because Arizona steamrolled the Brewers and Dodgers. This year, pundits are calling for the entire seeding system to be blown up because there was a team with a .500 record that not only made the playoffs, but won their division outright. Single seasons may bring some oddities, but they are usually not indicative of the reality of the game’s overall health.
I suspect, both the ownership side of things and the MLBPA have already drawn their battle lines and have already started crafting their arguments. This outcome in the playoffs will do more to feed the online debates between fans and pundits than it will do for or against the CBA negotiations.
C. Wesley Baier: I think it will impact the CBA negotiations, but how much is the real question. I would be shocked if the MLBPA didn’t use this as evidence against a salary cal, but I cant say if it wil be all that successful of a tactic.
Spencer: Nope. Anything can happen in a small sample size. Owners are greedy and want to abuse their employees/customers for profit still. Players are greedy and only care about the uppermost tiers of earning power. Fans will quiet down a little, but fan opinion and outrage has never been a driving force for either side.
Justin27: FTD
Makakilo: In half of the last ten seasons, the Dodgers reached the World Series. Three times they won the World Series. Their frequent success remains a problem.
1AZfan1: I doubt it. The owners were asking for a salary cap before the Dodgers lost. The Players were adamantly against a cap before the Dodgers lost. It’s going to be ugly. It was always going to be ugly.
ISH95: I think it’s going to be a rallying cry for the MLBPA in their Court of Public Opinion negotiations, but I don’t think it’s going to have a huge effect. The problem with this loss is that, without a salary cap, it really sets them up for another similar explosion like we saw after 2023. Their current core is slipping and aging, and if there is no salary cap, they’ll just replace them and move on. Trade what salary they can, dump what they can’t. It’s what they’ve done before. The owners know this, so do the players but that’s a different story. Nothing has actually changed other than a random, broken clock situation.
The Diamondbacks moved on from Brian Kaplan, but kept Joe Mather. Was this the right call?
James Attwood: Time will tell. I was a bit surprised by the team moving on from Kaplan. But, the team looks like they are trying to get new voices into the pitching development pipeline and maybe they thought this newer approach might unlock even more success among the numerous arms trying to make the final leap to the Majors. As for Mather, I think he’s been fine. I don’t think he has been particularly good or bad. But, some struggling players were successful in making in-season adjustments, including Nolan Arenado. If the team was going to move on from Mather, I would either want to see how his approach is falling on deaf ears, making his coaching a waste of time, or see the team line up a highly regarded hitting guru to replace Mather. Since neither of those things are happening, retaining Joe Mather seems fine.
C. Wesley Baier: I think they should have let Mather go as well, and I wasnt impressed other than how revitalized Arenado was at the plate.
Spencer: I assume so. Seems to me like Kaplan was a lame duck all year and the new pitching coach will be chosen with Bleich’s input. As for Mather? Meh. I don’t think coaches matter all that much on a major league team. They are sounding boards. Most true star players have personal coaches and anyone below that level is always going to be fighting for their roster spot anyway.
Justin27: I am not sure. We were all wanting Kaplan to move on after last season, I think. It seems maybe he learned from his mistakes or gained experience this season, though. If it were up to me I would move on from both. Who would I take to replace them? I don’t know, but whomever Wes, James, etc would hypothetically want is who I would go with lol.
Makakilo: Yes because of one word: sustainability. Ignoring pitching performance (which was a problem for some pitchers), in 2026 about 70% of total salary was for pitching compared to 30% for position players. That is not sustainable.
1AZfan1: If it had to be one or the other, Mather was the one to keep in my opinion. The Diamondbacks offense fell short compared to last season’s team, but that loss was almost entirely due to a collective step back from the “Big 3” of Domo, CC, and Ketel. Last season, the team tallied 805 Weighted Runs Created (wRC) per FanGraphs. This year they had 723, about an 11% drop. Last year, the Big 3 accounted for 320 wRC and this year they fell to a combined 261, a 23% drop. The rest of the lineup had a more modest 4% drop in wRC, and when you’re replacing Bambino Geno Suarez with rookies and a clearance-rack purchase of Nolan Arenado, a 4% overall drop in offense is pretty good.
The pitching staff was the strength of this team this year for sure, but I’m fine pressing the “I Believe” button and allowing Jeremy Bleich to pick his guy.
ISH95: 12 months ago that’s an easy question to answer. His changes seemed to lead to far more injury last season, regression from those that weren’t, and a bullpen that wasn’t great. This year, though, injuries were curtailed to a reasonable amount, the bullpen was solidly average, and we got some overperformance from some pitchers. Like other’s have said, however, we have a new Maester of pitching, so he probably wants his own.
Similar answer for Mather, as well. The offense had a couple of really good seasons with him at the hitting helm, and then one bad one. As a general rule, I’m hesitant to make knee jerk reactions when we have multiple seasons of good data and only one of bad, so I’m okay keeping him. However, if we continue to see struggles from the offense by the second month of next season, then it probably should be time for a change.
Kendrick went on Arizona Sports and announced they would be cutting payroll. Do you believe this will all come from low cost pre arb players replacing veterans, or should we expect salary moving trades?
James Attwood: I expect that most of the salary saving likely comes from allowing the likes of Lourdes GurrielJr. and Zac Gallen to drop off the books. That alone will account for $26.025 million in savings. Michael Soroka, Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and A.J. Puk are all also likely to depart along with Jonathan Loaisiga, Taylor Clarke and Pavin Smith. That adds another $21.575 million in savings. With all of those players departing via free agency, there won’t be much in the way of contracts left to trade off. The team could potentially explore an Eduardo Rodriguez trade, or perhaps a Ketel Marte trade. But, given that the team will be in need of 3-4 more starters as it is and that Marte has 10/5 no-trade rights, I don’t see much in the way of moving contracts to clear salary.
C. Wesley Baier: I think we’re going to see both as part an effort to maximize the value coming out of the payroll.
Spencer: Wait. Again? How many seasons in a row has he said this now? Two? Three? I think it will mostly come from letting free agents walk. Gallen, Soroka, Gurriel alone account for significant money who won’t be back. Of them only Soroka needs to be replaced/retained. I expect some trades to fill the “holes.” While I don’t really expect “big” money to be moved, Erod, Kelly or Marte moving wouldn’t blow me away either. In true Hazen form, I think it will be a little bit of everything. I could see a medium/big free agent/trade splash (like a $20M/yr committment for who knows how many years) and dumpster diving for bullpen arms.
And I can see him buying a young MLBer or prospect with some upside as well. Despite all the bruhaha people want to give him for McCarthy and Blaze last winter, those are the type of deals he tends to excel in. And one strength of the farm (FINALLY) is having depth for hitters capable of filling emergency holes on an MLB team. Your Blazes and Groovers and Fernandezes of the world. Not stars, or even true starters, but capable filler. If he can find the right trade target who’s current team needs some depth, I can absolutely see him packaging some of those “lesser” Arizona prospects to obtain the necessary MLB piece.
All this is meaningless though since one other near surety of Kendrick saying he’s cutting payroll is Kendrick spending money on a pitcher no one had as a target for Arizona. So I predict Skubal signs with Arizona hours before the Lockout begins at $50M/yr and immediately becomes a pumpkin. But man, three years from now? He’s going to have such a pretty not-terrible year!
Justin27: To me, “from low cost pre arb players replacing veterans” sounds like a rebuild. Given those two options, and that I cant come up with a third, I will go with that though.
Makakilo: Expect less salary for pitchers, more salary for position players.
1AZfan1: I actually have an article in draft for (hopefully) later this week looking at trade candidates to open up financial room, but I looked at it more through the lens of opening up payroll space to spend in FA instead of straight cutting talent. I suppose it is a possibility that ownership’s vision was to not add anything of value in free agency and just let rookies and castoffs fill the roster holes created by free agency, but I don’t think the cost cutting will be that drastic.
ISH95: I suspect that most of it will come from expiring contracts. Just replacing Gallen with a pitching machine would lower payroll by 22 million (and the team ERA by about .75). I also could see a salary clearing move or two as well. Sitting Marte down and figuring out what three teams he wouldn’t veto a trade to, and then figuring out a package with one of them regardless of the return wouldn’t really surprise me either at this point. That would clear another 19 million or so, and suddenly you’ve already cut 40 million off the payroll, plus the other expiring contracts not mentioned. Cutting the salary isn’t the question. The real question is how much of the savings they’ll be able to reinvest and fill some holes.
Banana Ball is coming to Chase Field. Will you be putting your name in the lottery?
James Attwood: Probably. I’m supposed to discuss that with the Mrs. this weekend.
C. Wesley Baier: Would love to but I don’t think the trip up to Phoenix, a hotel for the night, food, and everything else is in my budget, even if I did manage to score some tickets.
Spencer: I will not. Because I live in Ohio. But I will be for their performances in Cleveland and Cincinnati. I’m going to need some sort of baseball next season afterall! MLB can’t be counted on for that anymore, so I’ll take my measely, pathetic, poor-man’s dollars elsewhere.
Justin27: No. The drive up to Phoenix and back at night is terrible. I can kind of see why ST left. [Ed. Note bookmarking this for later use :-)]
Makakilo: Banana Ball will be in Honolulu on April 30 to May 1, 2027. I entered the lottery for Honolulu.
1AZfan1: Not in the area so no I will not, but I wouldn’t mind taking the kids at some point in the future when they visit our area. I’m not sure Banana Ball is something I want to drop money on to attend in person, but I know my boys would get a kick out of it.
ISH95: Nothing like a question like this to remind me that basically none of the writers live in Phoenix lol but yes, both my wife and I have put in for the lottery. It would be our second time going to a Bananas game, and we are both hopefully that we’ll make it.