Despite strong economic growth and a significant reduction in poverty, Tajikistan remains heavily dependent on remittances from labor migrants. The World Bank says a transition to a more productive economy will require stronger private businesses, greater investment and better-paid jobs at home.
Growth continues, but dependence persists
Tajikistan’s economy has recorded strong growth in recent years. According to official data, average annual growth over the past decade has exceeded 7%.
Poverty has also declined significantly. Based on the international poverty measure of $4.20 a day in purchasing power parity terms, the share of the population living below this threshold fell from 55% in 2010 to 14.8% in 2025.
However, remittances from citizens working abroad remain one of the main drivers of economic growth. According to World Bank estimates, remittances were equivalent to approximately 46% of GDP in 2025, compared with 39% in 2023 and 49% in 2024.
Money earned abroad supports household consumption, housing construction, trade and services, providing a vital source of income for many families. But this reliance also leaves the economy vulnerable to external shocks. Changes in Russia’s labor market, tighter migration restrictions or falling earnings among Tajik workers abroad can directly affect household welfare and domestic demand.
Large remittance inflows do not necessarily translate into a comparable increase in domestic production. A portion of the money is spent on imported goods, limiting its contribution to the development of local industries and the expansion of the country’s productive capacity.
The World Bank wants Tajikistan to move away from this model. Its new Country Partnership Framework for 2026–2032 envisages an economy driven more by private investment, human capital development and the creation of better-quality jobs.
Seven years without a breakthrough
The new strategy does not offer a fundamentally different diagnosis of Tajikistan’s economic challenges. Many of the problems highlighted today were already identified by the World Bank seven years ago.
In May 2019, the Bank presented its partnership strategy for 2019–2023, which was subsequently extended through 2024. The document identified three priorities: developing human capital and resilience, strengthening state institutions, and expanding the private sector and market development.
It also stressed the need to move away from an economic model heavily reliant on remittances and imports by developing domestic production, exports and employment.
At the time, the World Bank highlighted the private sector’s limited role in the economy. According to its estimates, private businesses accounted for around 15% of total investment, approximately 30% of industrial output and just 13% of formal employment.
The employment challenge was equally clear. The Bank estimated that around 130,000 young people entered Tajikistan’s labor market each year, while the economy was failing to generate enough opportunities for them.
Seven years later, private sector development, increased investment and the expansion of productive employment remain central to the Bank’s cooperation with Tajikistan.
The new strategy prioritizes energy security, workforce skills and private investment, with the aim of creating more and better-paid jobs.
Rather than introducing a new set of priorities, the Bank is seeking to focus its resources on problems that previous efforts have not fully resolved.
Results without structural change
The previous strategy did deliver results. In its review of implementation, the World Bank reported an expansion of its project portfolio and progress in healthcare, education, social protection and energy.
Initiatives were also undertaken to improve the business environment, support rural entrepreneurship and simplify certain administrative procedures.
Under an agricultural commercialization project, for example, nearly 21,000 beneficiaries recorded improvements in commercial activity, exceeding the initial target of 12,500. The project supported 1,458 agricultural enterprises, against a target of 1,500.
However, individual projects did not eliminate the structural barriers to private sector development.
World Bank assessments continued to point to difficulties in attracting private investment, uncertainty surrounding the application of tax legislation, risks to property rights and the state’s substantial presence in the economy.
Implementation was also affected by external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, regional instability and changes in economic ties with Russia. Some resources had to be redirected towards crisis response, while certain projects were delayed.
According to World Bank data, remittances averaged nearly half of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2022–2025. This underscores how little the country’s dependence on earnings from migrant workers has changed, despite progress in individual areas.
Economic growth does not guarantee jobs
One of Tajikistan’s key economic challenges is the gap between rapid GDP growth and the availability of jobs in the domestic labor market.
According to World Bank estimates, the country will need to create around 1.4 million jobs over the next decade. The demand reflects both the entry of younger generations into the labor market and the need to expand employment opportunities for the working-age population.
Yet not all sectors driving economic growth can generate large numbers of jobs.
The extractive industry, for example, requires substantial capital investment, equipment and technology but typically employs relatively few workers compared with the scale of investment. Large infrastructure projects can boost investment and output, but their long-term employment impact depends partly on whether related industries and businesses develop around them.
In an analytical paper published this summer, the World Bank noted that a significant share of private investment goes into capital-intensive extractive industries.
Meanwhile, workers are not moving quickly enough from low-productivity agriculture into better-paid jobs in industry and services.
As a result, opportunities to earn a living within Tajikistan remain limited. According to the World Bank, approximately a quarter of the country’s workforce goes abroad for employment.
The challenge, however, is not simply to increase the number of jobs. Their quality matters, too. Even when employment is available, low wages can remain a strong incentive for people to seek work abroad.
For Tajikistan, the task is therefore to turn economic growth into broader domestic employment opportunities, higher incomes and a stronger private sector — reducing the economy’s dependence on remittances over time.
Jobs exist, but wages remain low
Labor migration cannot be explained solely by a shortage of jobs. New businesses are opening and vacancies are emerging in Tajikistan, but low wages remain a major incentive for citizens to seek employment abroad.
The gap between domestic earnings and the incomes of Tajik migrants in Russia illustrates the challenge.
According to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, the average nominal monthly wage in Tajikistan reached 3,507.67 somoni in July 2026, up 21.6% year on year.
Earnings vary considerably by sector. The average wage was 2,365 somoni in healthcare and social services, 2,812 somoni in public administration, defense and social insurance, and 3,739 somoni in education.
Earnings among Tajik migrants in Russia are substantially higher, according to available research.
A study titled Labor Migration from Central Asia in Contemporary Moscow, conducted in autumn 2023 with the participation of the Moscow Human Rights Ombudsman’s office, found that surveyed migrants from Tajikistan earned an average of 49,691 rubles a month. The figure was 56,083 rubles for men and 40,297 rubles for women.
The study surveyed 900 migrants from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, including 300 Tajik citizens.
These figures apply only to the surveyed migrants in Moscow in 2023 and should not be treated as representative of all Tajik workers in Russia in 2026.
The World Bank’s diagnostic assessment, prepared as part of the materials for its new strategy, also highlights the earnings gap. According to the assessment, Tajik migrants working in Russia in relatively low-skilled jobs in construction, trade and services can earn at least three times as much as they would for comparable work in Tajikistan.
However, direct comparisons require caution. Tajikistan’s average wage covers workers across a range of sectors, while the Moscow study examined a specific group of migrants. Those working abroad also face additional expenses for housing, food and documentation, as well as the costs of living away from their families.
The wage data for migrants cited above date from 2023. Meanwhile, average nominal wages in Russia have risen by more than half over the past three years, according to Rosstat.
For many Tajik citizens, therefore, the decision to migrate is driven not simply by the difficulty of finding work at home, but by the prospect of earning considerably more abroad.
Under these circumstances, creating more jobs alone may not significantly reduce migration. Raising labor productivity is also essential if domestic businesses are to offer workers higher wages.
Remittances cannot replace decent jobs
International experts have also emphasized the need to improve the quality of employment in Tajikistan.
Following an official visit to the country in 2026, Attiya Waris, the UN Independent Expert on foreign debt and human rights, acknowledged Tajikistan’s progress in reducing poverty, sustaining economic growth and developing infrastructure.
At the same time, she warned that the economy remained heavily dependent on labor migration, remittances and imports. While money sent home by migrants has helped support household incomes and reduce poverty, she stressed that it cannot substitute for decent, productive employment within the country.
Waris called for greater investment in agriculture and food processing, sustainable tourism, mineral processing and the digital economy. She also highlighted the importance of education, vocational training, internet access and financing for small and medium-sized businesses.
Women and young people require particular attention, she noted, as low wages, limited employment opportunities and inadequate social services can prevent them from participating fully in economic life.
The challenge, therefore, is not merely to expand employment, but to create conditions in which people can earn sufficient and stable incomes at home.
Barriers to private business
Moving from an economy heavily reliant on remittances towards one based on domestic production will require a stronger private sector.
Simply increasing the number of registered businesses is not enough. Companies need access to credit, opportunities to purchase equipment, the capacity to expand production and the ability to enter new markets.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have repeatedly highlighted obstacles related to the investment climate, access to finance, competition and the management of state-owned enterprises. These constraints discourage investment in new production and limit opportunities to create more productive, better-paid jobs.
According to World Bank materials, a significant share of investment in Tajikistan is concentrated in capital-intensive industries, particularly extractive industries. Meanwhile, sectors with greater potential to generate employment on a wider scale are developing relatively slowly.
Workforce skills are another challenge. Modern production requires specialists with the technical and professional qualifications that businesses need, making vocational training and education closely linked to the country’s economic prospects.
The transition to a different economic model will therefore require several changes at once: improving the investment climate, supporting private businesses, upgrading workforce skills and increasing labor productivity.
Without these changes, a rise in the number of jobs will not necessarily translate into significantly higher wages.
A focus on production and employment
Under its 2026–2032 strategy, the World Bank has identified three main priorities: strengthening energy security, developing human capital and attracting private investment to create better-quality jobs.
Electricity generation is a particular focus, including the construction of the Roghun hydropower plant. Greater generating capacity is expected to help reduce seasonal electricity shortages and create better conditions for industrial development.
However, additional electricity supplies alone will not guarantee the emergence of new businesses. Private investment and a favorable environment for producing competitive goods and services will also be necessary.
The Bank identifies agriculture and food processing, renewable energy and the digital economy as promising areas for development. It also highlights the importance of infrastructure, better transport and digital connectivity, and workforce training.
Some reforms have already received financial support. In July 2026, the World Bank approved a $100 million grant to support economic reforms in Tajikistan, including measures in the digital, aviation and energy sectors.
The program includes measures to strengthen competition, improve regulation, increase transparency in state support and improve conditions for investors.
According to the World Bank, the supported reforms could help create more than 92,000 additional, better-paid jobs by 2030. This is a projection of the potential impact of the reforms, not a count of jobs already created through the funding.
From remittances to domestic incomes
The World Bank’s new strategy does not call for ending labor migration or restricting remittances. For many Tajik families, money earned abroad remains essential for covering daily expenses, financing education, building homes and investing in small businesses.
The goal is to change the balance of economic growth so that Tajikistan becomes less dependent on migrant earnings and increasingly relies on domestic production, exports, private investment and wages earned within the country.
Labor migration can remain part of a country’s economy even as it develops. The key question is whether people have a genuine choice between working at home and abroad, based on their skills, career prospects and financial interests.
The World Bank’s previous strategy already emphasized private sector development, export growth and job creation. Since then, Tajikistan’s economy has expanded, poverty has fallen, and infrastructure and social projects have advanced. Yet the country’s dependence on remittances remains high.
This is why the Bank is once again calling for a change in the economic model. The challenge is no longer just to sustain growth, but to ensure that growth generates more productive businesses, higher wages and employment opportunities that allow more people to build their livelihoods at home.