College football will never be the same.
Now, I know that sounds a bit dramatic. But doubling the size of the College Football Playoff is a dramatic move.
The CFP is closing in on a deal with ESPN to expand from the current 12-team format to a 24-team field in time for next season. It’s happening, whether fans like it or not — and even though the current bracket size works very well as is.
But the sport’s powerbrokers are drastically changing the postseason in a few different ways, and for a few different reasons. First and foremost: Money. So many schools and donors are spending upwards of $20 million per year on football rosters. Why would they continue to invest like that if there’s no chance of making the Playoff? In a world that defines success as a Playoff appearance — and everything else as failure?
For decades, there were a variety of markers of success for college football teams. About half the sport reached bowl games, which allowed those teams to celebrate with a postseason berth. A handful of teams would reach the sport’s most prestigious bowl games — the Rose, Sugar, Cotton, etc. — and really, really celebrate that. National champions were first determined by, well, declaring yourself one. Then, it was the polls. Then, the Bowl Championship Series and its computers. When very few teams had access to the title game, it didn’t dominate the sport’s consciousness nearly as much as it does now.
We lived in the four-team College Football Playoff era for a decade. Then, the 12-team era … for a minute. Starting next year, we’ll move into uncharted waters with 24.
How will the sport change forever? Let us count the ways:
- Conference championship games are going away. This was the crux of the CFP’s negotiation with ESPN. The CFP couldn’t expand unless the leagues could recoup enough money to make up for what they would lose by getting rid of conference championship games. The Southeastern Conference title game, in particular, was quite valuable as a standalone event.
- When SEC commissioner Greg Sankey signaled his support for the 24-team field, he also pushed for a new scheduling requirement — that Power 4 schools must play at least 10 games against other Power 4 teams to qualify for the CFP. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said his conference would support that (in exchange for the SEC supporting the CFP model). With that mandate, we should get some better nonconference games across the Power 4 leagues.
- Details are still being worked out, but it appears likely that what is currently conference championship weekend will turn into an off week for CFP teams, ahead of first-round games (pitting seeds 9-24 against one another, while seeds 1-8 receive first-round byes). It’s possible that Army-Navy gets played that Saturday.
- More Playoff games on campus. The first and second rounds of the 24-team Playoff will be played on the campus of the higher-seeded team. Seeds 9-16 will host games in the first round, and then seeds 1-8 will host the second round. The same bowl games that host quarterfinal and semifinal games will continue doing so in the new format. And the national championship game will move around, as it does now.
- According to Petitti, the 24-team CFP creates a tiered system of incentives. Lots of teams will play for the opportunity to make the field. Some teams will play for seeding — the opportunity to host a first-round game. The top teams will play for a first-round bye.
- Stakes will exist, but they’ll move down the rankings. A game like Notre Dame-Miami won’t mean as much in a 24-team world, because both teams would likely be safely in (even with weaker schedules than others). But a November game between, say, a three-loss Minnesota and three-loss Iowa could have real CFP implications. There will be teams with their backs against the wall, but it will be teams further down the polls.
- The regular season will undoubtedly feel different. Even if we get more big-time nonconference games scheduled, teams will be able to survive them better. So, a loss won’t derail a season as it did when college football teams had to be perfect (or near-perfect) in order to get a chance to play for the national championship. But that also means that teams aren’t going to be eliminated from contention in September, either.
The best (and deepest) teams should still be there at the end of January, just like they are now. Not every team that makes the CFP is actually capable of winning a national title. But everyone starts the season with hope and a potential path — and the teams that are true title contenders can get to the finish line and play for the trophy as well.
After months of getting coaches and other conferences involved, the Big Ten and SEC appear to have gotten their wish for an expanded field for the College Football Playoff, with a 24-team format set to start next season.- The SEC and Big Ten will now be able to send more teams to the CFP each year. The two leagues already take up the most spots in the field, and they’ll be able to send even more teams to the Playoff with a bracket that includes 19 at-large spots. (Four spots are designated for the Power 4 champions, and one spot goes to the highest-ranked Group of 6 champion.) This is a big deal for the Big Ten and SEC because those two leagues combine to account for 34 schools. They needed more landing spots in a world where those 34 schools are expected to spend tens of millions of dollars on their football programs every year. They needed more of their teams to have seasons defined as successful.
- For the ACC and the Big 12, expansion was the best way to consistently get multiple teams into the Playoff. That’s important for both building quality depth within the leagues and rewarding the investment from their schools.
- This move may alienate college football traditionalists. On top of conference realignment, NIL and the transfer portal, this is a lot of change happening in a very short period of time. Despite everything that’s happened in the past five years or so, fans keep watching and engaging with the sport at incredibly high levels. Could that change? Only time will tell.