The Republican era in Iowa feels like it’s coming to an end

For the next three weeks, Iowa may be the centre of the political universe.

This state may not be the place where Republican dominance of contemporary American politics screeches to a halt; no single set of midterm election contests can plausibly claim that in a country as large and culturally complex as the United States. But it’s a place where all the pressure points of the body politic are being stimulated.

So much so that the state’s sensory receptors are suggesting that an era of Republican supremacy in Iowa − both its senators in Washington, all four members of the House of Representatives and the governor − is in serious peril.

Donald Trump won Iowa by more than 13 percentage points in 2024, but a majority of Iowans now disapprove of his performance in Washington. No Democrat has been governor in 16 years, but Rob Sand seems primed to be the next occupant of the Terrace Hill governor’s mansion in Des Moines. No Democrat has won a Senate race here in 18 years, but state Representative Josh Turek has a fighting chance to do so. And no Democrat has won a House seat here in six years, but political professionals believe the party could win half of them next month.

As the sugar maples in northeast Iowa are turning yellow-orange, the sumac in the south-central part of the state is transitioning to burgundy and the crop fields are moving to golden brown, Iowa seems to be changing its political colouration as well, from Republican red to Democratic blue, at least for this season.

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“There’s the feeling here an era is ending,” said Barbara Trish, a political scientist at Grinnell College, a small (1,675 students) liberal-arts institution 89 kilometres east of Des Moines. “Too many trends are working against the Republicans.”

The reasons for this match the factors at play across the country now that the midterm election campaign is entering its final, combative phase: inflation, affordability, impatience with the Iran war. But there are several devastating Iowa twists:

• Gasoline prices, particularly stinging in a state with vast open spaces. Iowans drive an average of 22,729 kilometres a year, 67 per cent more than Saskatchewanians.
• Diesel prices, dramatically affecting the cost of operating tractors, combines and grain trucks, especially now, harvest time.
• Fertilizer costs, attributed to diminished shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tariffs, basically a tax on pesticide and farm-equipment imports.

And then there’s the Trump administration’s trade war with Canada, the state’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly US$4.9-billion in annual exports of corn, soybeans, pork, other agricultural products and farm machinery. In this week’s Senate debate, Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee, criticized Canada (it “should not have walked away” from the negotiating table) while defending the duties: “We are actually holding bad trade partners accountable when they are breaking the rules and not playing fair.”

All that’s why the 2026 Iowa Agricultural Outlook speaks of a multiyear decline in the state’s agricultural sector and carries the ominous title “The Pressure is Rising.”

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The pressure is rising as well for the Republican Party. A major reason: the deleterious effects of the Iran war on so many commodities vital to the Iowa economy, including the insurance industry, centred in Des Moines, which accounts for a greater percentage of GDP (10.09 per cent) than in any other state.

The war was at the centre of contention during the Senate debate. Mr. Turek, the Democratic nominee, sought to tie the conflict and its effects to his opponent, saying, “To every Iowan paying more at the pump, that’s because of Ashley Hinson. To every farmer facing record diesel prices, that’s because of Ashley Hinson.” Just recently, Ms. Hinson, who repeatedly voted against suspending the war, changed her stand, arguing that “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran” and calling for “a successful and immediate end” to the conflict.

Mr. Turek, who has spina bifida and is a two-time Paralympic wheelchair basketball gold medalist, once defeated Barack Obama, a storied hard court player, in a game. Mr. Obama’s endorsement of Mr. Turek is matched by Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Ms. Hinson − and his announcement that a US$15-billion steel plant, described as the largest ever built in the country, will be constructed in eastern Iowa. The announcement is also a boon to GOP Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, whose struggle to retain her seat prompted House Speaker Mike Johnson to schedule a trip to Davenport.

A Republican group set out recently to siphon an additional US$7-million to the Hinson campaign, in part in acknowledgment that Mr. Turek’s image is, as it put it, “a net positive.” Even with that cash infusion, she must struggle with her identity as a strong supporter of the President and her vow last year to be “President Trump’s strongest ally in the Senate.” In the debate she backpedalled, saying, “I’ll be President Trump’s ally when it is important for Iowa. But I will push back on him − he knows this, because I talk to him regularly − on things that are wrong for our state.”

In the gubernatorial race, Mr. Sand, the state auditor, has a commanding lead in large measure because he’s running more against the current political system than against his opponent, Republican businessman Zach Lahn.

In an appearance Wednesday at Grinnell College, Mr. Sand derided the two major parties as “two private clubs more interested in beating up each other than serving people” and charged that “our political system is designed to separate people from each other.” That’s a crowd-pleaser for the age, if not the ages.