BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 2:25 pm ET · Source: Brazil’s electoral court decision, as reported by SBT News
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, electoral court minister Estela Aranha ordered the removal of social media videos linking Lula’s party to drug suspects.
- The videos They show three detainees, two adults and a 17-year-old, in shirts backing Lula after an arrest in Piracicaba, São Paulo state.
- The dispute Military police are accused of forcing the shirts on the detainees, and the police ombudsman is investigating.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 78% and a Lula win by at least 1 point at 14% (24 October, 2:25 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not ruled on the facts, and the origin of the shirts is disputed.
Brazil’s electoral court has ordered the removal of videos that show suspected drug dealers in campaign shirts of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, two days before the runoff. Minister Estela Aranha of the electoral court (TSE) decided on Friday 23 October that the posts wrongly tie Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) to crime, SBT News reported.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
43 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The order lands in the last weekend of the Brazil election 2026 campaign, between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. For readers abroad, it shows how far Brazilian judges will go to police online campaign content, which matters for platforms and investors watching the vote.
What the Court Ordered
The videos show three people detained in Piracicaba, in São Paulo state: two adults and a 17-year-old, SBT News reported. The shirts read “Professores da Apeoesp com Lula”, or “Apeoesp teachers with Lula”, according to SBT.
Senators-elect Guilherme Derrite of the Progressistas party (PP) and Carlos Jordy of the Liberal Party (PL), which backs Flávio Bolsonaro, published the videos, Tribuna do Sertão reported. They also spread on the WhatsApp channel “Tropa do Flávio”.
Lula’s coalition filed an urgent petition, SBT News reported. The order covered posts on X, Instagram and the WhatsApp channel.
Why the Judge Said the Posts Went Too Far
Aranha wrote that the content uses a specific police episode to present a link between the PT and crime as fact, O Antagonista reported. She said suspects wearing a candidate’s shirt does not allow the conclusion that a link exists with that candidate or his party, Bahia Notícias reported.
The images, in her words, “exceed, in principle, the limits of political-electoral criticism”, Tribuna do Sertão reported. The Portuguese original is “ultrapassa, em princípio, os limites da crítica político-eleitoral”.
The Dispute Over the Shirts
Military police officers are accused of forcing the three to wear the shirts after the stop, SBT News and Tribuna do Sertão reported. Bahia Notícias said the decision did not weigh the detainees’ testimony.
The teenager’s mother told SBT News that her son left home in a blue sleeveless shirt and that police forced him to change. The Civil Police registered the case as possible threat, coercion and abuse of authority, and the Military Police ombudsman opened an investigation, O Antagonista reported.
What It Means for US Readers
The ruling shows Brazil’s electoral court acting against campaign content on social platforms in the final days. If you follow Brazilian markets or ADRs, more such orders are possible until the result is certified.
Decisions like this one can also feed each side’s claims of bias before and after the vote. Our Brazil election polls page tracks the race itself.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win by at least 1 point at 78% and a Lula win by at least 1 point at 14% (24 October, 2:25 p.m. ET). The margin-of-victory market has drawn 41,404 contracts on the Bolsonaro side.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.5% · Lula 16.5% (US$195 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known who put the shirts on the detainees, which police and the ombudsman are investigating. It is also unclear whether Derrite, Jordy or the channel will appeal.
Any effect on voters is unmeasured, since no poll has asked about this episode. The court’s ruling is about the posts, not about the detainees’ guilt or the officers’ conduct.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s electoral court order the videos removed?
Minister Estela Aranha ruled the posts wrongly link Lula’s party to crime. She said suspects wearing a candidate’s shirt does not prove a connection.
Who is Estela Aranha?
She is a minister of Brazil’s electoral court (TSE), the body that runs and polices elections. She decided the case on Friday 23 October.
Who posted the videos?
Tribuna do Sertão reported that senators-elect Guilherme Derrite and Carlos Jordy published them. They also spread on the “Tropa do Flávio” WhatsApp channel.
Did police force the detainees to wear the shirts?
That is disputed. Military police are accused of it, the court did not rule on it, and the police ombudsman is investigating.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: O Antagonista, 23 October 2026; SBT News, 23 October 2026; Bahia Notícias, 23 October 2026; Tribuna do Sertão, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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