Alberta Says No to MAGA-Aligned Independence Campaign

Alberta resoundingly voted against a path to independence in a referendum on Monday, in a blow to the right-wing campaign to separate the wealthy western province from Canada.

Albertan independence had drawn support from MAGA-influenced movements and Christian nationalists on both sides of the border, but faced an especially uphill battle in the face of President Donald Trump’s threats to invade and subjugate Canada.

The province’s leader, Danielle Smith, who came to power with the backing of separatists, added the question to provincial ballots in May after a petition for independence collected over 200,000 verified signatures. She tentatively supported a no vote, but federal leaders from across the political spectrum including Prime Minister Mark Carney rallied to defend a united Canada.

Partial results show that voters in the staunchly conservative province likely approved a number of other ballot questions, lending support to restrictions on immigration and putting more of the federal government’s powers in provincial hands. But with about three-quarters of voters opposing the headline-grabbing question, they were firm on remaining part of Canada.

Trump has threatened to invade Canada and annex it as the “51st state,” most recently at a rally last Wednesday in Arizona. His steep tariffs on trade with the country, implemented without congressional authorization and seemingly by personal whim, pose stark dangers to an economy deeply entwined with that of the United States.

That has set off a wave of backlash, from boycotts of American “whisky” to Carney’s shift towards spellings with a more British “flavour.”

But frictions between oil-rich Alberta and the federal government predate the Trump administration and current culture wars.

Alberta is Canada’s conservative heartland, but the Liberal Party has run the federal government for over a decade. Some in western provinces have long felt that Canada is dominated by the country’s more populous east, and have been aggrieved at fiscal policies that shift money towards less wealthy provinces. Under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, climate policies shifting away from fossil fuels that Alberta’s economy is built on increased the discontent.

The “no” vote ran up massive margins in Calgary and Edmonton, where most of Alberta’s people live. With most results reported, it also won by smaller margins in nearly all rural areas.

Even if a majority had voted yes, the route to independence would have been long and dubious. The vote was actually about whether to hold a true independence referendum at a future date, and the Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that provinces cannot secede without negotiating with the federal government.

On the other side of the country, Canada’s second-largest province, delivered a more mixed result for separatists recently. 

Two weeks ago, a pro-independence party fell just short of a majority in provincial elections in Quebec, which has clashed with the federal government over protections for its majority French-speaking culture.

(The federal leader of Quebec’s separatists has suggested that Alberta needs “a culture of their own” before gaining independence, cheekily adding, “I am not certain that oil and gas qualifies.”)

The Parti Québécois pledged during its campaign to hold a third independence referendum, but with a caveat: not while Trump is still in office. But polling shows only about 30 percent of people in Quebec favoring independence, and Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won a decisive victory there in last year’s federal election.

This month, Canada’s two most independent-minded provinces have delivered similar verdicts: they want governments close to home empowered, but they don’t want independence—especially not while their southern neighbor (or neighbour) is threatening to destroy their current country.