For the first time this season, Michigan football is the underdog. Though it felt like the Wolverines were the underdog in Week 2 against Oklahoma, they were still the favorite. However, with Indiana coming to town, the maize and blue truly aren't expected to win.
And yet, there's hope.
Tommy Carr replaced Bryce Underwood at quarterback in the second half against Penn State, and now, Michigan football seems to have some life offensively. But given how good Indiana is in the trenches, it's a tall task for Carr to come in and suddenly have success against the Hoosiers.
ESPN's Bill Connelly, the resident advanced stats guru, broke down the game, why Carr was able to have success vs. the Nittany Lions, and what he expects to happen against the Hoosiers.
After getting shut out in the first half against Penn State last week, Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham benched quarterback Bryce Underwood for freshman Tommy Carr, and the Wolverines scored 21 points in the second half. Most of the damage came from the run game, but this sample was enough to give Carr the starting job.
Coordinator Jason Beck mostly kept things easy for Carr -- basic RPOs, reads and rollouts. But he made good reads and rushed for 38 yards and a score, and Beck's playcalling made PSU defend the entire field. Carr's five completions were to four receivers in five different areas of the field.
RPOs and rollouts alone probably won't work on Indiana. Against SP+ top-50 offenses, the Hoosiers are allowing 18 points per game; against lesser offenses, they've pitched two shutouts. (Michigan is 76th.) They are dominant against the run, and their lone vulnerability is in the secondary. Carr might have to make some big-time throws to get on the board.
Michigan's defense has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game, but the Wolverines haven't faced an offense better than 50th in SP+. (Indiana is 12th.) Against Ohio State's elite defense, Indiana found success in the passing game -- Josh Hoover threw for 296 yards, 165 to Charlie Becker -- but the run game struggled.
It's been two years since we tested how Indiana responds to a loss. The Hoosiers are well positioned for another Big Ten title run, especially with Ohio State's QB situation, but they'll have to make Carr look like the freshman he is to score their first win in the Big House since 1967.
Current line: Indiana -7 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 8.1 | FPI projection: Indiana by 13.1
All good points. While the stats do tell a story that indicates that Michigan football won't be in a good spot on Saturday, you also can't quantify that it's a team that now has belief after putting up 21 points in the second half. And though the Wolverines' defense hasn't been tested quite this much, each game is taken on its own, and Josh Hoover struggled mightily against Jay Hill's BYU defense a year ago.
Kickoff is at noon EDT on Saturday at The Big House.
This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: ESPN predicts Michigan vs. Indiana, breaks down Tommy Carr's challenge