Georgia Tech comes to Lane Stadium on Saturday, fresh off knocking off unbeaten Duke. Virginia Tech comes in having lost two straight by a combined seven points.
The Hokies lost to Pitt 35–33 on Oct. 2 when John Love’s 36-yard field goal try was ruled no good as time expired. Eight days later, they lost at Cal 25–20, giving up a 2-yard touchdown run to running back Ashten Emory with 18 seconds left. Coach James Franklin’s 4–0 start is now 4–2, with a 1–2 mark in the ACC.
Here are three bold predictions for the game.
1. Virginia Tech runs for 200 yards
Start with the split. It explains the last two weeks better than the missed kicks do.
Through four wins, Virginia Tech ran for 711 yards, or 177.8 per game. In two losses, it ran for 178 total yards: 65 yards on 32 carries against Pitt and 113 at Cal.
Ethan Grunkemeyer threw 72 passes across those two games. The redshirt sophomore has mostly handled the workload in stride. He has completed 152 of 208 passes (73.1%) for 1,734 yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Both of those interceptions came against Pitt, in a game in which the Hokies turned the ball over four times. A pocket passer throwing 40 times a game is not this offense at its best.
Georgia Tech is the place to fix that. The Yellow Jackets allowed 183 rushing yards per game through five games, 118th in FBS. Senior Marcellous Hawkins Jr. already knows the matchup. He ran nine times for 82 yards in last year’s loss in Atlanta. Nine carries, 9.1 yards a pop.
The bold part is the number. The Hokies have rushed for fewer than 200 yards combined over their last two games, and that has left Grunkemeyer carrying the offense through the air. I expect Franklin and offensive coordinator Ty Howle to see that he doesn’t need to throw 40-plus times a game for this team to win, and to put the ground game back at the center of the plan.
2. The Hokies hold Georgia Tech to under 75 rushing yards
Thirteen months ago, Virginia Tech fired Brent Pry as its head coach. Now he calls its defense. Franklin brought Pry back as defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, reuniting two coaches who worked together at Vanderbilt and Penn State.
The run defense has been the best part of his unit. Virginia Tech allowed 86.5 rushing yards per game through six games, 13th in FBS.
Georgia Tech’s offense is built around its backfield, and that backfield is banged up. Haynes was a preseason first-team All-ACC pick after running for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns in seven games at Michigan last season. He’s doubtful. Hosley, who ran for 129 yards and a touchdown against the Hokies last year, is out.
That likely puts the load on Trelain Maddox. He ran for 81 yards and three touchdowns against Duke, including the go-ahead 1-yard score with 54 seconds left. He did it against a Duke defense that came in allowing 63.8 rushing yards per game. Carrying the whole run game is a different job.
Georgia Tech hasn’t been consistent on the ground even with Haynes in the lineup. It averages 134.0 rushing yards per game, 101st in FBS, and converts 36.2% of its third downs, 99th. Take away the run and make quarterback Alberto Mendoza beat you on third-and-long.
3. John Love makes every kick, including one from 40-plus
Two weeks ago, this wouldn’t have been a bold prediction at all.
Love opened the season 6-for-6 on field goals. Then came the 36-yarder against Pitt, followed by misses from 55 and 39 yards at Cal. That’s three straight misses and a 6-for-9 season.
After Pitt, Franklin said he’d put Love “back out there for the same situation every single time.” After Cal, he opened up the job.
“I think obviously when you miss three field goals in a row, and two that we think are makeable high-percentage kicks for John, we’ve got to make sure that we’re looking at every option possible,” Franklin said. “So, we’ll create some real competition this week.”
That competition includes Cole Byrd and Love’s younger brother, freshman Will Love. But Franklin was clear about where it starts. “Obviously, John is still the guy,” he said.
Saturday, he keeps the job, goes perfect and hits one from beyond 40. The Hokies need him to. Their last two games were decided by one possession, and will especially need him when they travel to Clemson next week.
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