Entering Week 7 of the college football season, there is a clear talent discrepancy between Baylor and TCU. The Bears are 4-1, riding a major win over Arizona State. While the Horned Frogs are 2-3 and are in desperation mode.
And what makes this game even more intriguing is how much success TCU has had against Baylor in recent seasons. The Horned Frogs have won the last five of six matchups between the two teams. The Bears feel the disrespect and Baylor looks to change some narratives this weekend.
Here's how Baylor on SI sees the game going.
Trent Knoop
Entering this game, you might wonder how TCU is going to move the ball, and score, against Baylor. The Bears have yet to allow more than 20 points to the opposition in any game, and the Horned Frogs' offense is among the worst Big 12 teams this season.
But this is the Revivalry game after all, and in most big-time rivalry games, throw the stats and records out the door. Baylor is playing to remain in the Big 12 hunt, but the Horned Frogs are playing for pride, and possibly trying to save Sonny Dykes' job.
TCU will come out swinging in this game, holding nothing back. Expect some trick plays and quarterback Jaden Craig to play his best game yet. But this game is in Waco and the fans are going to be loud. DJ Lagway and the Bears' offense make enough plays to keep Baylor undefeated in Big 12 play.
Final score: Baylor 31, TCU 27
Jacob Haddadin
I think Baylor will run away with this in the third quarter after a cagey first half. Baylor is just better, will have the home-crowd advantage, and has momentum coming off the thrashing of Arizona State. Baylor looked like a playoff-caliber team against Arizona State, and TCU, specifically offensively, has struggled to dominate opponents, even ones inferior to them. Baylor needs a win, and I think they will get it.
Final score: Baylor 31, TCU 16
Tyler Gillum
Baylor is coming back after a bye week and a dominant offensive performance against the Sun Devils. The Bears will look to notch their sixth win this year and a third conference win in the first half of the season. Although I believe this game will be a lot less out of the running game, DJ Lagway should still be able to find a lot of success through the air.
The best way to frustrate this TCU passing defense is getting those quick early reads and letting your playmakers get yards after the catch. TCU has scored just 33 points in their last two games against Power Four opponents, and just 105 rushing yards combined in their two conference losses to BYU and UCF. Jaden Craig hasn't been successful against worthy opponents either, scoring just one passing touchdown in his last two, and three turnovers.
This Baylor defense should be able to force a few mistakes and end up with a pick or even two. Baylor is coming off a dominant win and a fully rested bye week, while TCU is missing multiple linemen and receivers that likely won't be playing Saturday. If the Bears can muster up anything close to the offensive performance they had against Arizona State, we could be looking at another dominant win.
Expect Lagway to have over 34 passing attempts and to reach a solid 270 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I'm expecting another big game for Gavin Freeman, a solid 11 catches for somewhere north of 85 yards and a touchdown. TCU's run defense has been one of their strong suits, so Lagway will likely be forced to get most of their production done through the air.
Final score: Baylor 31, TCU 20
Brad Teague
Baylor has the momentum of a four game winning streak and the advantage of playing at home. Not only that, but the Bears seem to control their own destiny in the Big 12 as they look to be favored in multiple upcoming games including against TCU. The last three games of the Bears' regular season could have massive postseason implications regardless of the outcome of this game, as they are against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston.
TCU however is 2-3 and staring down missing out on a bowl game and potentially even missing the ".500 or better mark" at the end of the season. That's precisely why they're dangerous; a team with nothing else to lose like TCU is exactly the kind of team that ends up punching above their weight class. Not to mention that even though they lost the game, TCU's defense was even able to keep BYU's high powered offense to only 17 points.
The best-case scenario for this game is going to be a Baylor win. Doesn't really matter how, doesn't matter pretty or ugly, a win in Waco for the Bears is the ideal outcome. Bears win handily 38-10.
The worst-case scenario for this game however, is that TCU's defense proves that it's legit and prevents any of Baylor's running backs from being able to squeeze past the line of scrimmage and thus forces DJ Lagway to try and force passes into too tight of coverage leading to 1-2 interceptions.
My realistic expectation lies somewhere in between as I expect Lagway and his receivers to excel, but the running game to struggle again unless they are able to break free for another momentum-boosting long touchdown run. Baylor has no excuse to lose this game; they've got the better quarterback, deeper running back corps, an almost endless supply of wide receivers who specialize in scoring touchdowns, and a defense that hasn't allowed much of anything this season.
Final score: TCU 24, Baylor 20
Blake Hollingsworth
TCU’s defense has been impressive, but I think Baylor’s passing attack will present a tougher challenge than any the Horned Frogs have faced this season. With TCU’s offense struggling, I expect Baylor to capitalize on a few mistakes and pull away for a comfortable 31-17 win.
Final score: Baylor 31, TCU 17
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