U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed resuming large-scale military operations against Iran last week, according to a report. Trump later said publicly that he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, but military authorities in both countries have continued preparing for operations, keeping tension high across the Middle East.
U.S. online outlet Axios, citing multiple sources, reported on the 13th that Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone several times last week to discuss military operations targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Netanyahu passed on intelligence from Israeli agencies indicating that Iran was making worrying moves to rebuild its nuclear program, the report said. Israel is particularly wary of the possibility that Iran could use an underground site known as Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment facility. One U.S. official said Netanyahu appeared eager to strike again, and that Trump had told him to be ready but had not promised an attack.
Trump initially appeared receptive to resuming strikes but gradually shifted to a more cautious position, according to the report. On the 8th, after his discussions with Netanyahu, he declared that he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.
Still, U.S. and Israeli military authorities are finalizing operational preparations in case that stance changes. Axios reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Central Command leadership strongly support resuming airstrikes, while most of Trump's advisers prefer maintaining non-military pressure such as economic sanctions for the time being. The White House denied reports that the two leaders discussed resuming the war.
Whether to strike Iran is also tied to the election calendars in both countries, analysts say. Israel holds general elections on the 27th, and the United States holds midterm elections a week later, on Nov. 3. If the war resumes, Iran could retaliate with hundreds of ballistic missiles, which could disrupt the Israeli election schedule. Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir recently conveyed concerns to U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine in a phone call that the general elections could be postponed if full-scale fighting resumes within the next three weeks. For Netanyahu, however, a conflict could be a way to shore up wavering support. One U.S. official said Netanyahu views being a wartime prime minister as a political strength.
Trump, by contrast, faces a substantial economic burden if the war resumes. Energy prices have surged because of the Middle East war, raising living costs for American voters, and further military operations could push gasoline prices higher again. With high prices emerging as a major issue ahead of the midterm elections, an expanded war could become a political liability for the Republican Party, analysts say.
Meanwhile, talks between the United States and Iran on ending the war have yet to produce a breakthrough. Qatari mediators are awaiting Iran's response to a recent U.S. counterproposal that includes demands for concessions on the nuclear issue. One U.S. official said the talks were neither completely over nor making real progress, adding that Washington was continuing to intensify pressure and believed Iran would ultimately make a wiser decision. Trump told reporters on the 13th that Iran was a failed state and that he would make a decision on Iran soon.