Robots and AI models together could take on about 80% of the work Americans do, Anthropic says. But robots are cheaper than people for just 0.3% of tasks today.
The findings come from Anthropic’s new robotics study, which Business Insider picked up this week. It extends the company’s earlier research on how AI chatbots affect jobs.
Different jobs at risk
AI models alone reach about half of all work, the study found. Adding robots pushes that to about 81%.
The two hit very different jobs. Robots reach physical, lower-paid roles that chatbots miss, the opposite of the usual AI pattern.
In transport, fewer than 15% of tasks are exposed to AI models alone. With robots, that jumps to about 90%. Nine of the ten most exposed jobs are vehicle drivers, led by taxi drivers.
The cost problem
Robots can technically handle about 74% of physical tasks, the study says. Most of those only work in tightly controlled settings, such as assembly lines.
Cost is the bigger barrier. About 300,000 US workers hold jobs where robots are already cheaper, mostly packers and packagers.
If robot prices fell 20%, that number would rise to about 2.8 million workers. At past rates, reaching 10% of tasks would take about 40 years.
What about gardeners?
Business Insider’s Alistair Barr questioned what the shift means for hands-on jobs such as gardening. Its own estimate put cleaning and maintenance work, which includes gardeners, among the biggest gainers in exposure.
Barr said he was sceptical, given how hard it is to pull a weed out by the roots. Anthropic’s study notes that cleaning robots are often slower than people and several times more expensive.
The ratings were made by Claude using web search, and Anthropic stresses that exposure does not mean job losses. The company has also mapped three AI economies, from a mild boost to mass job loss.
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