European airfares to rise by up to 20% next year, Ryanair CEO says amid fuel cost pressures

European airfares will see their "biggest increase in history" next year, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said on Tuesday, with airlines largely unhedged against higher jet fuel costs.

O'Leary forecast there would be fewer seats available next year as a result of bankruptcies and takeovers among airlines, which together with the unhedged positions would result in fares increasing by as much as 20%.

"You're going to see airfares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%. You're going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe for the next 12 months," O'Leary told a news conference in Brussels.

The Iran war has driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, squeezing margins for airlines that were unhedged.

O'Leary said that Ryanair and other European airlines had strong hedge positions on jet fuel for 2026, adding that Europe's largest airline was 80% hedged at $67 per barrel to March 2027 when the conflict began at the end of February.

The Ryanair CEO said that from April 2027 most European airlines had very little hedging in place. Ryanair has just 15% of its fuel costs for next year at $85 a barrel, compared with spot rates around double that level, he said.

Boeing 737 MAX 10 certification

O'Leary was in Brussels to announce he was cutting 20 routes and more than a million seats from Belgium for the airline's winter schedule after Belgian plans to increase its aviation tax to €7 in January from €2 now.

The industry veteran also said he was optimistic that US certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 will be completed this month, allowing Ryanair to receive 16 planes in early 2027.

"Boeing are hoping to have the MAX 10, the new aircraft, certified before the end of October ... We're pretty optimistic that that date will be hit," O'Leary told Reuters.

US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is expected to announce the Federal Aviation Administration has approved the long-delayed 737 MAX 10 on Tuesday after a glitch with its navigation software threatened further delay to certification.