How Fred VanVleet’s Return Will Help the Rockets in 2026-27

The Rockets’ 2025-26 season was derailed when Fred VanVleet blew out his knee just before the start of training camp. They didn’t have another true point guard on the roster, and the hard cap made it nearly impossible to find one.

VanVleet is back, having participated fully throughout training camp and played in two of the Rockets’ three preseason games. He may not be the same player he was before the injury, but his presence on the floor should help in several areas.

Turnovers

Here is where the Rockets have ranked in turnover rate the last five seasons

As you might expect, VanVleet was the Rockets point guard during the two seasons they finished inside the top 11, and the team’s turnover rate fell to 12.2% and 12.5% when VanVleet was on the floor during those two seasons.

VanVleet’s All-Star days are behind him, and it will take him some time to get back to the level he was at two seasons ago, but the Rockets missed his steadiness last season, especially in fourth quarters where 16% of their possessions ended in turnovers.

Three-point shooting

While VanVleet shot just 34.5% from behind the three-point line two seasons ago, he’s a career 37% shooter from long distance. That alone will provide a boost to a team that struggled from beyond the arc, but just as important, he’ll help create more looks from deep.

The Rockets averaged just 31.5 three-point attempts per game last season, the third fewest in the league. They attempted 35.8 threes per game two seasons ago and 36.1 during the 2023-24 season. According to NBA.com, VanVleet averaged more than 10 drives per game in his two seasons with the Rockets and passed the ball on more than 60% of those drives.

Last season, six Rockets players averaged more than three drives per game, and only Amen Thompson (50.5%) passed the ball on more than 45% of those possessions. VanVleet’s return should open up the Rockets’ drive-and-kick game, creating more open three-point opportunities.

Defense

VanVleet’s return should boost a Rockets defense that allowed almost two more points per 100 possessions last season than it did the year before. VanVleet may struggle defensively early in the season, but he’s a smart defender whose presence alone should make his teammates better, most notably Amen Thompson.

Thompson did not make an All-Defensive team last season after earning first-team honors the year before, and some of that can be attributed to VanVleet’s absence. Pressed into point guard duty, Thompson led the NBA in minutes played and had to expend more energy on offense, taking away from his defensive impact. Having VanVleet and Marcus Smart handle most of the point guard duties will allow Thompson to wreak havoc on the defensive end.

The Rockets’ defensive turnover rate dropped to 13.7% last season from 14.4% the year before.