9h35 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
Bitcoin must reclaim its 20-month moving average, located around 87165 dollars, to strengthen the scenario of a new all-time high, according to CryptoQuant. However, this technical signal remains a condition, not a promise of increase, while BTC is still trading near 82000 dollars.
In brief
- Bitcoin must sustainably surpass 87165 dollars to strengthen its chances of reaching a new all-time high.
- CryptoQuant estimates that the market correction is over and observes several signals favorable to a bullish recovery.
- Purchases by major holders and the return of positive flows to bitcoin ETFs support this scenario.
- A confirmed break of 87165 dollars could pave the way to 121640 dollars.
- Maintaining bitcoin above 80000 dollars remains essential to avoid a new correction.
A major resistance forms around 87000 dollars
The 20-month simple moving average corresponds to the average of bitcoin’s monthly closing prices over the last twenty months. It smooths out short-term movements and helps identify the general market direction.
Several levels currently structure the CryptoQuant analysis :
- The 20-month moving average is at 87165 dollars ;
- The annual opening price of bitcoin reaches around 87490 dollars ;
- The upper Bollinger band stands at 121640 dollars ;
- The lower band is around 52694 dollars ;
- Bitcoin is currently trading near 81511 dollars during the analysis.
The proximity between the moving average and the start-of-year price strengthens the resistance. Sellers who bought near 87000 dollars may take advantage of a return to their entry price to exit their positions. Significant sell orders have also been observed in this area.
Bitcoin lost this moving average in December 2025. CryptoQuant qualifies it as an “inflection boundary”, because crossing it has sometimes marked the transition from an accumulation phase to a more durable bullish recovery.
A simple approach above 87165 dollars would not be enough to confirm the movement. The market should close sustainably above this zone, then turn it into support. An additional rejection would keep BTC in the lower part of its long-term structure.
CryptoQuant estimates the market “reset” is over
CryptoQuant’s Market Cycle Signals indicator is based on monthly Bollinger bands to place bitcoin within its cycle. The space between the lower band and the 20-month average is presented as an “accumulation base”.
According to GugaOnChain, a CryptoQuant contributor, the correction after the 2025 peak has sufficiently reset the market. “A little over a year after the historic peak on October 6, 2025, the market has completed its reset,” he states.
The analyst believes that retail sentiment remains too cautious compared to on-chain data. “While the general public fears that the current 82442 dollars represent the peak, the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator reveals that we are only warming up,” he adds.
Another CryptoQuant indicator supports this view. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator displayed 0.186, versus 0.042 in August. A positive and rising value indicates, according to its methodology, a strengthening bullish momentum.
Major holders have also resumed their purchases. Their holdings, excluding platforms and mining pools, have reached 3.03 million BTC, their highest level since November 2025. The American bitcoin ETFs have become net buyers again this year after recording up to 83000 BTC of cumulative outflows.
These elements fuel the scenario of an early bullish phase in which significant players position themselves before retail investors. However, they do not allow dating a possible peak nor predicting its exact level.
A new record remains far from automatic
The upper Bollinger band, near 121640 dollars, is a first theoretical target in the CryptoQuant model. It remains slightly below the record of around 126200 dollars set in October 2025. Therefore, bitcoin should break through several resistances before marking a new high.
The analysis also presents a significant limitation: Bollinger bands are not designed as standalone buy or sell signals. They describe volatility and the position of a price relative to its average, but do not directly consider Federal Reserve decisions, ETF flows, or geopolitical shocks.
In the short term, the support located around 80400 dollars remains crucial. A confirmed break could shift attention to 77000 dollars, then 73500 dollars. The 200-day moving average, near 71000 dollars, would then form a deeper defense zone.
The bullish scenario therefore requires two successive confirmations: preserving 80000 dollars, then sustainably reclaiming 87165 dollars. Only after these steps would a return to 121640 dollars, then to the all-time record, become technically more credible.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.