Speaker Mike Johnson's sudden frank talk about his political future is upending the quiet maneuvering ahead of a post-election GOP leadership contest.
Why it matters: The race could become a three-way fight if Johnson follows former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's example and tries to stay in leadership if Republicans lose the majority.
- Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has widely been viewed as a top contender for the job — and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) did not seek a waiver to remain Judiciary chair, fueling speculation that he's preparing to run for leader.
- Many Republicans privately worry they're going to lose and expected Johnson to step aside if the majority slips away.
- But his new blunt and unexpected musings on his own future challenge that assumption.
Driving the news: "In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government," Johnson told CBS News.
- But some members aren't buying it: "Why would you want to be minority leader after speaker?" one House Republican told us, adding they would support new leadership.
One leader not taking the bait is Scalise: "There are no races that any of us need to be talking about until after the election's over," he told Axios during an in-flight interview while campaigning out west.
- Scalise acknowledged Johnson's comments: "I think early on he said he wasn't going to play in hypotheticals, and you know, and he might have gone down that path for a minute. We're focused on holding the House, and that's where my energy is."
Between the lines: A bad enough defeat could spark calls for an entirely new leadership team, three House Republicans told us.
- But Johnson has his defenders: "Johnson has done everything humanly possible to keep us in the majority," one House Republican told Axios.
Zoom in: Some GOP sources believe a three-way contest could split support between Johnson and Scalise, potentially benefiting Jordan.
- Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) intends to stay in his current role and has no plans to move up the leadership ladder, he told Axios last month.
- Emmer staying put means three candidates would compete for one job, minority leader, without a clear fallback for the two losers beyond challenging Emmer.
- Becoming party leader requires only a majority vote by secret ballot, rather than a public vote on the House floor.
The bottom line: The jockeying frustrates some Republicans who argue they should focus only on winning in November.
- "How sad we have members bidding for MINORITY leadership positions," one House Republican told us in a text.