Andy Burnham must build “durable” support from voters for the UK rejoining the European Union, according to an influential think tank.
The Labour Government should be bold enough to make full membership of the bloc a “medium-term” goal, said the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) in a report published on Monday.
New polling commissioned by the IPPR and Persuasion UK found that more than half (52 per cent) of those questioned wanted to rejoin the EU, compared with 29 per cent who wanted to stay out.
Even among Labour voters considering switching to Reform UK, 54 per cent wanted to return, compared with 36 per cent who wanted to keep out.
The PM has promised to set out possibilities for Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU at a Brussels summit on 20 November – with rejoining likely to be one of the options.
Burnham said during the Labour conference that it was “possible” his party’s election manifesto could promise another in-out referendum on Brexit.
Why voters fears can be ‘overcome’
The IPPR reported that old arguments about the freedom of movement required of EU’s member states had lost “salience”, while claims of “betraying” the 2016 referendum also appeared to matter less to voters.
However, Nigel Farage made clear that he and others would not allow Labour to take steps towards reversing Brexit without a fight. Britain would not “vote to rejoin” if a second referendum were held, the Reform UK leader claimed to the Sunday Express.
Mihir Sharma, principal research fellow at IPPR, told The i Paper that it was time for Burnham to make a positive case for rejoining. The PM could get a mandate either through another referendum or a clear manifesto commitment, he said.
The Government should aim to build “durable” support among a majority of voters so it can withstand “detailed questions” about what rejoining will mean as the debate becomes increasingly fierce, said Sharma.
“Questions around whether the UK will join the euro, for example, will be difficult. But they can be overcome,” he added.
Reset deals ‘not enough’
Labour’s current reset deal with the EU is moving closer as Brussels works on a plan to ensure British under-30s can work across the continent under a youth mobility scheme, The i Paper revealed last week.
It is hoped a wider package of Brexit reset agreements on food and drink, trade and carbon markets can be agreed at the November summit.
The IPPR said the UK Government should continue to work on deals with the EU on defence and manufacturing as clear steps on the way to full membership.
Part of moving towards membership could include seeking inclusion in the EU’s “Made in Europe” scheme, which prioritises European firms for public contracts and subsidies.
So far, discussion has focused on including Britain’s car industry in the scheme, which the Government has said would be welcome. But is also likely to require alignment with EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – potentially putting net-zero targets at risk.
However, these individual deals to forge closer ties “will not be enough”, said Sharma. “We need something more comprehensive that benefits our economy and our security, and that comes from full membership of the EU.”
Burnham warned against ‘overpromising’
Professor Catherine Barnard, an expert in EU law at the University of Cambridge, said Burnham had helped “open a window” to a fresh debate about rejoining the bloc.
“However, there is a risk of overpromising and underdelivering,” she added warning of major barriers ahead. One of the biggest issues will be the EU’s need to know that there is strong and sustained support inside the UK for going back in, Barnard added.
Dr Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU relations and a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, said she was surprised how quickly the idea of rejoining had returned to the centre of political debate.
However, the Government would have to “keep those [poll] numbers up” while easing voters’ concerns about free movement, whether the UK would join the Euro, and contributions to the EU’s budget, she added.
Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, said it was not clear whether majority support among British voters for rejoining was “soft” and would hold up during the “long and brutal process” of trying to forge a deal with Brussels.
“Who wins the framing is key,” he said. “If it can be framed as being about growing the economy and boosting security, that’s one thing. But others will try to frame it as the elite overturning the decision already made.”
What Labour MPs think
Some Labour MPs are supportive of a fresh push to rejoin. Marsha De Cordova, MP for Battersea, told a Westminster Hall debate last week that Brexit “has been an unmitigated disaster”. She added: “Rejoining the EU would significantly boost the UK’s GDP.”
But other Labour MPs are uneasy. Lucy Powell, the party’s deputy leader, said during conference that it was “not possible nor desirable” to go further than the EU reset plans pushed by Sir Keir Starmer.
The IPPR argues that the EU which Britain could rejoin is fundamentally different to the EU that Britain left after the Brexit vote of 2016. The bloc is becoming a more active security and economic actor to deal with Russian aggression, an unpredictable USA and growing economic pressure from China.
A UK Government spokesperson said the Brexit deal it inherited “had weakened our ability to control illegal immigration, slowed growth and left businesses tangled in red tape”. Ministers were working on “practical deals” with the EU to support growth and cut back on paperwork, they added.