Eastern Australia is heading into a soggy stretch of weather, with parts of Queensland and northern NSW bracing for days of heavy rain that could dump more than a month’s worth of October rainfall in less than a week.
At the same time, Hobart is sweating through rare spring heat, with the city on track for multiple 30 degree days before a sharp weekend cool change flips the weather again.
A broad wet pattern is expected to grip much of the country over the next few days, but the biggest concern is centred on Queensland and northeast NSW.
Deep tropical moisture and unstable conditions are combining to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms.
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Angus Hines warned that “plenty of rain and a lot of storms” is forecast across Australia over the next several days.
Forecast maps point to the heaviest falls landing from central and southern Queensland into northern NSW.
Mr Hines noted that “eastern Australia sticks out brightly”, with northern NSW and large parts of Queensland likely to see 50 to 150 millimetres over five days.
“And since some of that is driven by storms, we’re likely to get isolated pockets which exceed that,” Mr Hines said.
Weatherzone also expects a broad zone from central Queensland to northeast NSW to collect more than 100 millimetres during the coming week, enough to exceed the October average in some places.
The heaviest bursts are likely to develop at times, particularly across southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.
Mr Hines flagged Thursday as a day when steady, soaking falls could become the bigger issue.
“You could get heavy rain without any thunderstorms at all,” he said.
“This is going to pile up and on Thursday alone we could see 50 to 100mm land in the rain gauges through (the) eastern area, with isolated places getting even more than that.”
Flooding is the main threat as the wet weather deepens. Minor flooding has already started in parts of central Queensland, and Mr Hines warned that more areas could be affected in coming days.
While the east deals with flooding risks, Tasmania is in the grip of unusual October heat.
A severe heatwave is affecting parts of southern and eastern Tasmania, driven by warm northerly winds around a stubborn high pressure system in the Tasman Sea.
Hobart reached 30.4 degrees on Tuesday, its hottest October day in nine years, and more heat is still to come.
Forecasts suggest the city could climb back to around 30 on Thursday and 29 on Friday after only a slight dip midweek.
The hot spell is not expected to last. A cold front and rain are forecast to sweep across Tasmania this weekend, dragging temperatures down sharply.
Hobart is expected to fall back into the high teens on Saturday and around 16 on Sunday, with some forecast models even hinting at snow on higher ground early next week.
Mr Hines expects the national weather pattern to stay messy through the weekend before easing.
“We’ve got lots of rain, lots of storms to keep an eye on throughout the rest of this week,” he said.